The White House believes it is getting closer to reaching an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the ongoing war and establish a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, according to an exclusive report by Axios.
Citing two US officials and two other sources briefed on the issue, Axios reported that nothing has been agreed yet, but the sources described this as the closest the parties have been to an agreement since the war began.
The news outlet further reported that the White House expects Iranian responses on several key points within the next 48 hours.
According to the Axios report, the proposed deal would include several significant provisions. Iran would commit to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, while the United States would agree to lift its sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds.
Both sides would also lift restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Axios noted that many of the terms laid out in the memo would be contingent on a final agreement being reached, leaving open the possibility of renewed war or an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved.
Citing US officials, Axios reported that the White House believes the Iranian leadership is divided, and it may be difficult to forge consensus across different factions. Some US officials remain sceptical that even an initial deal will be reached.
US officials have expressed optimism about a deal at several points during previous rounds of negotiations and during the current war, but have yet to reach one, the report goes on to add.
However, the two US officials told Axios that President Trump’s decision to back off his newly announced operation in the Strait of Hormuz and avoid a collapse of the fragile ceasefire was based on progress in the talks.
Axios reported that the one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding is being negotiated between Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.
In its current form, the MOU would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to open the strait, limit Iran’s nuclear programme and lift US sanctions. Two sources told Axios that those negotiations could happen in Islamabad or Geneva.
A US official told the outlet that Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the strait and the US naval blockade would be gradually lifted during that 30-day period. If the negotiations collapse, US forces would be able to restore the blockade or resume military action.
Nuclear enrichment moratorium being negotiated
The duration of the moratorium on uranium enrichment is being actively negotiated, with three sources saying that it would be at least 12 years, while another source putting 15 years as a likely landing spot. Iran had proposed a five-year moratorium, while the US demanded 20 years.
A source told Axios that the US wants to insert a provision whereby any Iranian violation on enrichment would prolong the moratorium. Under the proposed terms, Iran would be able to enrich to the low level of 3.67 per cent after the moratorium expires.
Iran would also commit in the MOU to never seek a nuclear weapon or conduct weaponisation-related activities. According to a US official, the parties are discussing a clause whereby Iran would commit not to operate underground nuclear facilities. Iran would also commit to an enhanced inspections regime, including snap inspections by UN inspectors.
The US, for its part, would commit to a gradual lifting of sanctions imposed on Iran and the gradual release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds around the world.
Two sources with knowledge of the talks claimed that Iran would agree to remove its highly enriched uranium from the country — a key US priority that Tehran has rejected up to now. One source said an option being discussed is moving the material to the United States.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that “we don’t have to have the actual agreement written in one day.”
“This is highly complex and technical. But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile,” he added.
However, Rubio also called some of Iran’s top leaders “insane in the brain” and said it was unclear whether they would make a deal.
