Leaders from Russia, India, and eight other countries are convening this weekend in Tianjin, China, for the latest summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The two-day meeting, set for Sunday and Monday, will focus on the group’s activities and the future direction of its members amid a rapidly changing global environment marked by unpredictable US trade and foreign policies.
The SCO, over the past 24 years, has grown both in size and influence, now comprising of Russia, Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Initially formed as a counterbalance to US influence in Central Asia, the organisation has expanded over time, admitting India and Pakistan in 2017, Iran in 2023, and Belarus in 2024, reports AP/ UNB.
The member states represent a mix of geopolitical interests. Some, like Iran and Russian-aligned Belarus, are foes of the West, while others, such as India, China, and Russia, have more complex relationships, influenced by varying stances on issues like the Russia-Ukraine war and the fallout from US tariffs that have disrupted global trade, including with China and India.
The upcoming summit could provide clearer insight into the group’s direction. Since its founding in 2001, the SCO has largely been shaped by China’s dominant economic power, with Russia aiming to maintain influence over Central Asia, especially over countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, which were part of the former Soviet Union.
Although Russia’s economic influence has diminished, particularly under the weight of Western sanctions, the alliance has seen growing military cooperation between China and Russia, mainly through joint exercises and training activities.
However, the membership of countries like Belarus, Iran, Pakistan, and India has raised questions about the long-term benefits for these nations. Belarus and Iran have been heavily sanctioned internationally, while Pakistan remains reliant on China for military hardware.
India has long-adhered to a policy of neutrality, which could be motivated by its national interests. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, India has significantly increased its oil imports from Russia, straining its relations with Washington. Prime Minister Modi, following a meeting with China’s top diplomat in August, emphasised “steady progress” in relations with China and expressed a commitment to “respect for each other’s interests and sensitiveness.”
India’s involvement in the SCO could challenge the dominance of Russia and China within the organisation. While India has solid trade relations with both nations, it is unlikely to align with Russia on the war in Ukraine or with China on territorial disputes, such as those involving Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Additionally, India has long sought a permanent seat on the UN Security Council but has received limited support from China and Russia, possibly to prevent undermining their relationships with the West. For India, the SCO offers little risk as long as US foreign trade policies remain uncertain.
India has also expressed reservations about signing a joint statement with the SCO due to its concerns over the lack of a reference to a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22, which the nation has blamed Pakistan for. Despite this, there has been little expectation that India will sign the statement.
China, as the host of the summit, has provided few details on what specific outcomes it hopes to achieve, maintaining its typically secretive diplomatic style.
However, the official Chinese news agency Xinhua has labeled the gathering the “largest-ever SCO summit in history” and framed it as an opportunity to chart the organisation’s future. According to Xinhua, the summit will focus on advancing the bloc’s development in the next decade and is expected to see the signing of various agreements, including one marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II on September 3.
Alongside the core SCO members, representatives from several other countries, including Egypt, Nepal, and various Southeast Asian nations, will attend as dialogue partners or guests. Xinhua also highlighted the growing trade and rail freight between China and other SCO members, observers, and dialogue partners, underscoring the economic benefits that China hopes to emphasise.
The summit’s timing is significant, coming just days before a major military parade in Beijing marking the 80th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in World War II. The event will be attended by President Xi Jinping and other international leaders, including a rare appearance by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
