China is considered an epicenter of multifaceted education; one lesson, especially, that China is teaching the world is how to astutely play the ruthless, zero-sum game of geopolitics to attain long-term goals. Acting on Napoleon’s advice, “never interrupt your enemy while he’s making a mistake,” China is letting its main rival, the United States, remain bogged down, uninterrupted, in conflicts in far-flung places. What strategic dividends, though, is China drawing from this deft move?
The US war against Iran has left China economically powerful, militarily strong, and diplomatically influential; it also controls the world’s largest reserves of rare-earth minerals. Tellingly, China has achieved these gains without firing a single shot. With this wherewithal, it holds extensive leverage and bargaining chips in geopolitics; thus, China’s ambition to become the regional hegemon in the Indo-Pacific is steadily crystallising.
America has drained its valuable military assets and eroded the geopolitical advantages it once held in the Middle East by starting an unprovoked war in Iran; as a result, its military bases in the Gulf region have been hit hard by Iranian retaliation. Consequently, the security umbrella the US has sold to Gulf countries has failed to safeguard them. Moreover, the Iranian proxy force, the Houthis, is blocking and attacking Saudi oil tankers attempting to pass through the Straits of Bab-el-Mandab in the Red Sea, and Saudi Arabia is launching counterattacks into Yemen and Iraq. Hence, a regional war appears to be brewing quickly. China is relishing these developments.
The war is dragging the US into an unwarranted pitfall; its munitions stocks are dwindling fast, forcing it to pivot its military hardware and personnel from the Indo-Pacific to the war theatres in the Gulf area, thereby leaving its allies in East Asia vulnerable. The Indo-Pacific is a contested and volatile region where both China and the US compete for dominance; the war is greatly weakening the US position there and handing China a stronger foothold. Furthermore, global oil and energy, as well as chemical and fertiliser supply chains, are faltering. Therefore, the affordability of living for working-class people in the US is worsening. The average national gas price at the pump is now hovering around $4.11 per gallon, compared with $2.95 before the war started. The midterm Congressional election, scheduled for November, will likely reflect the negative effects of this unpopular war in the US.
Both Defense and political analysts predicted such a scenario at the onset of the war and warned the Trump administration against it. Yet the US decided to move forward with its ironclad ally, Israel. However, Israel has lately pulled back from participating in it as the US warns Iran of ‘opening the gate of hell’ amid escalating attacks. Thus, the more the US uses its military resources in it alone, the more power China accumulates, a classic balance-of-power calculation.
Unlike the US, China has not been involved in a major military conflict since its brief 27-day engagement in Vietnam in 1979. Instead, it has focused on economic reform and modernisation since the early 80s and, over time, has strengthened its formidable military capabilities, aiming to position itself as a regional hegemon. The US, in concert with its allies – Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Taiwan, has been trying to deter China’s rise for years; however, China has been an indispensable partner in trade, commerce, and infrastructure development in Asia, making any comprehensive deterrence efforts enervated. And Trump’s erratic tariff policies handed China an unprecedented economic advantage: imports stayed constant at $2.58 trillion, creating a trade surplus of $1.19 trillion in 2025. China’s dominance, consequently, will grow even further if America keeps choosing to fight wars across the globe.
In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year cooperation agreement, a diplomatic feat that solidified their economic and political alliance. Under the agreement, China is to invest $400 billion in Iran over the years in exchange for heavily discounted, unfettered access to Iranian oil supplies. The funds would be invested in telecommunications, ports, railways, information technology, and health care. China would also deepen its military cooperation with Iran, conduct joint training and exercises, develop weaponry, and share intelligence. This was a shrewd Chinese diplomatic move to shield Iran from complete isolation by US sanctions on the Iranian oil sector and to exert its influence in the Middle East. Consequently, China has not faced any major disruption in oil supplies during this war.
In 2025, China invited the Presidents of Russia, North Korea, and Iran to Beijing to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Not surprisingly, the US branded this alliance – CRINK – an ‘axis of upheaval’ and concluded that it is a direct challenge to American standing in East Asia, Eurasia, and beyond. The fact that three nuclear states: China, Russia, and North Korea, and an aspiring nuclear one, Iran, are security partners is significant. For example, China is assisting Iran with BeiDou satellite systems to launch precision-guided missiles. Similarly, Russia is sharing electronic intelligence with Iran, which is helping Iran shield itself against US airstrikes and launch its own aerial assaults. Lastly, North Korea is thought to have sent 20000 soldiers to Russia to fight in the US-backed war in Ukraine.
The United States has suffered far greater consequences from the war in Iran. It has lost its dominance in the Middle East, and its closest allies are now sceptical of the rationale for hosting US military bases in their countries, as these bases seem more like security threats than sources of protection. In contrast, China has benefited most from this war. Its supplies of cheap Iranian oil have been unaffected; its imports have risen significantly; and its military technology has proven effective and has served as a reliable ally in need. China has skillfully used restrictions on access to rare-earth mineral supplies as a bargaining chip, forcing Trump to renegotiate his tariff policies. Therefore, these successes, achieved without fighting wars, testify to how effective a geopolitical educator China has been, lessons to be noted.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author
The writer is a Doctoral Researcher, International Relations, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM)
