Amid multiple challenges, the National Consensus Commission (NCC) is set to submit its final recommendations to the interim government today for the implementation of the July Charter.
Around 12pm, the NCC members will present the recommendations to Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, in the presence of other advisers at his official residence Jamuna, according to the CA’s Press Wing.
Sources said the government will implement the recommendations. In this regard, a special order and the schedule for a referendum on the implementation of the charter — as well as the formation of an upper house in the next parliament under the proportional representation (PR) system — are receiving particular importance. However, these two issues still remain points of serious disagreement among political parties.
Therefore, the NCC’s recommendations may not be the final word. Significant challenges still remain for the government to execute them.
Analysts believe that if the government fails to take swift and effective decisions on implementing the July National Charter, uncertainty may arise over the holding of the next national parliamentary election.
Professor Sabbir Ahmed of the Department of Political Science at the University of Dhaka said, “If the government intends to hold the election in February next year as previously announced, it must take practical steps to implement the July Charter. Otherwise, a fresh political crisis may emerge, which will affect the national election.”
There were strong indications throughout Monday that the NCC would submit its recommendations. A meeting was held between the chief adviser — who is also the chair of the NCC — and the commission members at Jamuna in the afternoon. However, the recommendations were not submitted there. Instead, the draft recommendations were reviewed, and the chief adviser made no changes.
Multiple sources within the commission said to give the July Charter a legal basis, an order will first be issued based on the July Uprising. The order will be titled the “July Charter (Constitutional Reform) Implementation Order 2025”.
A referendum ordinance will be issued under this order, which will serve as the legal basis for the referendum. If the referendum is endorsed by the people, the next parliament will be mandated to perform a dual role — as both a Constitutional Reform Council and the legislature.
After the order is issued, some provisions will take immediate effect, while others will come into force at later stages. The implementation timeline for each provision has been clearly outlined in the NCC’s recommendations.
However, the commission has not made any recommendations regarding the timing of the referendum, leaving that matter to the government.
Most commission members believe holding a referendum beforehand could delay the national election. Therefore, they prefer that the referendum and the election be held on the same day. Still, they have indicated that the referendum may be held before the election if the government deems it possible.
The BNP and its allies support holding the referendum on the same day as the general election. Jamaat-e-Islami, its allies, and the National Citizen Party (NCP), however, want the referendum beforehand.
Jamaat and seven other parties are already engaged in street campaigns with five demands, including the issuance of the constitutional order to implement the July Charter and holding the referendum by November this year.
Commission sources said no political party’s notes of dissent will be mentioned in the referendum process. The referendum will take place solely on the reform proposals prepared by the NCC. If the “yes” vote wins, those proposals will be implemented exactly as drafted.
However, the BNP remains adamant that notes of dissent must be included in the referendum process. Jamaat and the NCP, by contrast, oppose the inclusion of dissenting opinions.
If the referendum passes, the constitutional reform proposals must be implemented by the next parliament within nine months. During this period, the parliament will perform its regular legislative duties along with its role as the Constitutional Reform Council. The entire implementation process will be specified in the July Charter Implementation Order.
Once the referendum is passed, the Constitutional Reform Council will be obliged to form the upper house through the PR system. The process of forming the upper house must begin within 15 days of council approval. A special clause has been included to ensure that the upper house is established under PR in the next parliament.
But the main point of contention among parties remains the formation of the upper house under PR. Except for the BNP, 25 parties, including Jamaat and the NCP, support PR for the upper house. Despite four months of dialogue, no consensus has been reached.
Sources suggest that if the referendum-linked order and the PR system for the upper house are not implemented, Jamaat, the NCP and some other parties may embark on a tougher movement, which could threaten the election process.
Meanwhile, the NCC draft text states: “The order is being issued under the authority vested by the July Uprising.” The BNP argues that the interim government was formed under Article 106 of the Constitution with the opinion of the Supreme Court, and that constitutional continuity exists — therefore, the interim government does not have the authority to issue such a constitutional order. Jamaat and the NCP oppose this view.
Jamaat and the NCP demand that the order must be issued in the name of the chief adviser, not President Mohammed Shahabuddin nominated by the ousted Awami League.
The commission is also considering an alternative proposal: instead of a direct order, the government could introduce a bill on the referendum containing all reform proposals. If passed by referendum, the law would automatically be incorporated into the Constitution, even if the council fails to implement all reforms within 270 days. However, experts do not support this option.
Despite the commission’s informal talks with political parties to gain wider approval, the parties remain firm in their previous positions. As a result, renewed political uncertainty may emerge over the implementation of the July Charter.
