The sudden US-Israel strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday shocked Tehran and the world.
Alongside Khamenei, senior Iranian officials, including IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour, Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, and Military Council head Ali Shamkhani, were also killed in the operation.
The attack demonstrated precise planning, months of intelligence work, and close coordination between Washington and Jerusalem, according to media reports.
Saturday’s strike has left the world asking a pressing question: who will succeed Khamenei, and how will the transition unfold?
CIA’s Prediction
Even before the operation, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had assessed who might succeed Khamenei if he were removed.
According to a Reuters report, people familiar with the analysis said, CIA concluded that hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were the most likely to seize power.
The agency conducted this assessment in the two weeks leading up to the strike, exploring potential outcomes of a US intervention and whether it could trigger regime change.
The IRGC is Iran’s elite military force, charged with protecting the country’s Shi’ite clerical rule.
Analysts say its senior leaders are organised, loyal, and experienced enough to dominate a leadership vacuum.
The CIA report emphasised that succession was not guaranteed but that the IRGC will likely dominate Iran’s political and security institutions if Khamenei were gone.
The intelligence proved critical in the planning of the strike. The CIA had monitored Khamenei’s movements for months and learned that he would meet top officials at a Tehran compound on Saturday morning.
Using this information, US and Israeli forces adjusted the timing of their operation to achieve tactical surprise.
Israeli fighter jets and long-range missiles struck multiple buildings in the compound, where Khamenei and other senior officials were located.
The operation reflects both the sophistication of US and Israeli intelligence and the failure of Iranian leaders to take adequate precautions.
Previous conflicts, including last year’s 12-day war, had allowed US agencies to map Khamenei’s routines and IRGC communication channels, refining their understanding of how Iranian leadership operates under pressure.
Intelligence officials noted that past events had allowed US agencies to refine their knowledge of Iranian leadership patterns and IRGC operations, improving their ability to predict high-level movements and potential vulnerabilities.
The assessment also examined broader ramifications of US intervention, including the likelihood of military escalation and the stability of Iran’s political structures.
One key finding was that while the supreme leader’s removal would create a power vacuum, the IRGC could step in swiftly, maintaining continuity of hardline governance.
As Iran mourns Khamenei, questions about his successor remain paramount. The CIA’s analysis underscores the expectation that any transition would favour senior IRGC figures, potentially entrenching their influence over Iran’s political, military, and security apparatus.
How Iran Selects Its Supreme Leader?
Under Article 107 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the supreme leader is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, which also holds the authority to dismiss him. A candidate must secure a two-thirds majority vote of the assembly’s members to be appointed.
The Assembly of Experts consists of 88 clerics elected to represent Iran’s provinces. Each province is allocated one or more seats based on population. Tehran has the largest representation with 16 seats, followed by Razavi Khorasan and Khuzestan with six seats each, and Isfahan, East Azerbaijan, and Fars with five seats each.
Candidates for the Assembly of Experts must first have their qualifications approved by Iran’s Guardian Council. Half of the Guardian Council’s members, as well as its head, are appointed by the supreme leader.
This process has been used only once since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979, when Ruhollah Khomeini was succeeded by Khamenei in 1989. The leader must be male, a senior cleric, politically capable, and loyal to the Islamic Republic.
Article 111 states that if the supreme leader is unable to fulfill his duties or no longer meets constitutional requirements, he is dismissed. While the article does not explicitly address killing, it specifies that in the event of death or resignation, the Assembly of Experts must elect a new leader as soon as possible.
While the Assembly deliberates, a three-member interim council assumes control. The council comprises the President, the head of the judiciary, and a senior jurist from the Guardian Council. This body manages state affairs until a new leader is chosen. Following Khamenei’s death, Iran confirmed that the interim council would temporarily oversee the country’s leadership.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and two other top officials will lead Iran in the transition period, state television reported on Sunday.
Judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and another official from the country’s legal council will be part of the trio overseeing the transition, according to state television, which cited Mohammad Mokhber, one of Khamenei’s advisors.
Possible Successors
As Iran reels from the sudden killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attention has turned to the question on everyone’s mind: who will succeed him, and how will the transition unfold?
According to an Iran International report, analysts and insiders point to a mix of hardline clerics, Khamenei’s own family, and other figures with revolutionary or political credentials.
A CNN report, citing experts and analysts, has identified potential contenders to succeed the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the late leader, is widely regarded as a powerful behind-the-scenes operator. He maintains strong links with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Basij paramilitary force, both central to Iran’s security structure.
Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, has emerged as a more conciliatory option. Although his influence within the security apparatus is limited, he carries significant religious and revolutionary prestige. Analysts suggest he could serve as a compromise candidate, appealing both domestically and internationally.
Alireza Arafi, is a senior cleric and close Khamenei ally. He serves as deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and has been a member of the Guardian Council, which vets election candidates and reviews legislation. He also leads Iran’s seminary system.
Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, represents the most conservative clerical faction. A hardline member of the Assembly of Experts, he heads the Islamic Sciences and Culture Academy in Qom and is known for his staunch opposition to the West. Analysts say he embodies the uncompromising segment of Iran’s religious elite.
Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, is a senior cleric with close ties to the Assembly of Experts, where he serves as first deputy chairman. He is reportedly close to Khamenei but maintains a low public profile. Bushehri has limited connections to the IRGC and is seen more as an institutional figure than a political strongman.
The succession of Iran’s next supreme leader will hinge on complex interactions between religious authority, political influence, and military power.
Analysts say the IRGC’s senior figures are likely to play a decisive role, particularly given their organisational strength and control over key security institutions.
Others note that the Assembly of Experts, charged with electing the supreme leader, may attempt to balance competing factions to maintain continuity while avoiding a sharp internal power struggle.
