US President Donald Trump secured victory in the 2024 presidential race after his initial opponent, then-President Joe Biden, withdrew amid concerns over his age and mental sharpness.
However, more than a year into Trump’s four-year term, polls indicate that Americans are not only increasingly dissatisfied with his job performance but also growing more worried about his mental capacity.
The unease has not reached the levels seen with Biden, who was 81 when he exited the race, but it is emerging as a growing concern for the 79-year-old Trump.
Multiple recent polls show most Americans questioning his mental acuity in some form. Even many Republicans appear to share these concerns, reports CNN.
The striking survey came on Tuesday, ahead of Trump’s first State of the Union address for his second term – a speech that broke his own record for the longest address to Congress.
Reuters-Ipsos poll revealed that 61 percent of Americans agreed Trump has “become erratic with age.” Notably, 30 percent of Republicans concurred with that sentiment.
The survey echoes some polling from Trump’s first term, when many Americans began questioning his mental sharpness.
While the percentage of registered voters saying he was not “mentally stable” approached 50 percent in Quinnipiac University polling following the 2021 attack on the US Capitol, it never surpassed a majority – let alone reached 61 percent.
Reuters-Ipsos poll also recorded a decline in the percentage of Americans who describe Trump as “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges.” That figure has dropped from 54 percent in September 2023 to 45 percent today.
But Trump – who frequently boasts about acing cognitive tests and who spoke for one hour and 47 minutes on Tuesday night – still remains far from where Biden stood. Only about one-quarter of Americans said Biden was mentally sharp and able to handle challenges in July 2024, the month he withdrew from the race.
Other polls reinforce these findings, including a CNN survey conducted last month.
That poll showed the percentage saying Trump possesses the “stamina and sharpness to serve effectively as president” declining from 53 percent in late 2023 to 46 percent today.
That 46 percent still remains well above where Biden stood in 2023 (between 25 percent and 32 percent).
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll last week indicated that majorities believed Trump lacked the mental sharpness (56 percent) or physical health (51 percent) required to serve effectively.
The former has risen 13 points since May 2023, while the latter has climbed even more—by 23 points.
These numbers do not match where Biden stood late in his presidency, when he registered in the 60s on both measures.
However, the percentage doubting Trump’s mental sharpness (56 percent) is actually comparable to where Biden stood at this point in his term. In February 2022, Biden registered 54 percent on this question.
Finally, a Pew Research Center survey conducted in January reinforces the trend.
It showed the percentage of Americans who are at least “very confident” that Trump has the mental fitness for the job dropping from 39 percent a year ago to 32 percent today.
The percentage who are at least “very confident” about his physical fitness has fallen from 35 percent to 28 percent.
And mirroring the Reuters-Ipsos poll, the numbers among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents warrant attention. The proportion of them who are “very confident” in Trump’s mental fitness has dropped from 75 percent to 66 percent. On physical fitness, the figure has declined from 65 percent to 55 percent.
Thus, both the Reuters and Pew polls show three in ten people (or more) within Trump’s own base expressing some level of concern on this issue.
Biden’s numbers were worse overall. By April 2024, the percentage of voters saying they were “very confident” stood at only 21 percent for mental fitness and 15 percent for physical fitness. CNN polling showed that as much as half of Biden’s base believed he lacked the requisite stamina and sharpness.
But why might Trump’s numbers on these measures be deteriorating?
One explanation is that they are simply declining alongside his popularity. As overall sentiment toward Trump sours, people may increasingly view his often-peculiar public performances through a more negative lens.
However, these concerns are also registering even among some Americans who lean toward viewing Trump favourably. It is certainly possible that his verbal missteps – such as repeatedly confusing Iceland and Greenland – are having an impact.
It is also possible that scrutiny over bruises on Trump’s hands, questions about whether he has dozed off during public events, the White House’s slow disclosures regarding his medical testing, and his more restricted public schedule are prompting some people to raise more questions than they otherwise might.
Regardless, what remains clear is that the oldest president ever elected is now confronting this issue, just as the previous holder of that title did a few years ago.
