A pre-election survey released just two days before the 13th parliamentary election has stirred controversy, amid claims the organisation behind it is linked to Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami-affiliated groups.
The survey, conducted by an organisation called the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD), has been accused of having links to Jamaat-e-Islami. These allegations surfaced after an analysis of social media and the online activities of those involved, raising new questions about the impartiality of the survey.
On Monday, a report titled ‘Pre-election Public Opinion Survey’ claimed there could be a fierce competition between the BNP-led alliance and the Jamaat-led coalition in the 12 February election. The survey stated that 44.1 per cent of people supported the BNP-led alliance, while 43.9 per cent supported the Jamaat-led alliance.
It also predicted that the BNP alliance could win 101 seats and the Jamaat alliance 105, with 75 seats being highly contested between the two alliances, and 19 seats potentially being won by other parties.
Shafiqul Alam Shaheen, executive director of the organisation that conducted the survey, told reporters that the survey was conducted randomly on 63,615 people across the country’s 300 constituencies.
He added that the survey was conducted with the help of two organisations, Projection BD and Jagoron. When asked whether publishing the survey so close to the election could influence public opinion, he explained that the delay in finalising the candidates had caused a delay in completing the survey.
However, after analysing social media, claims have emerged linking Shafiqul Alam Shaheen to a specific political group.
Many online users have referred to him as a former president of Islami Chhatra Shibir’s Dhaka University unit. Although no official statement has been issued on this by him, a 2022 Facebook post referred to him as the director general of Focus University Coaching, an organisation often discussed in connection with the Chhatra Shibir.
Multiple photos and posts from 2021 to 2024 also show him with current leaders of Chhatra Shibir. Some of his online supporters have been seen calling for the implementation of Islamic Sharia law.
Another organisation involved in the survey, Jagoron, is chaired by Sharif Hasan Al Banna, who is also listed as the chairman of the Islamic Institute for Development and Research (IIDR) on social media.
Meanwhile, the Facebook page of Projection BD, listed as an associated organisation, was created last month and appears to have only been used for IILD’s campaign, with no other activities visible.
Most notably, the verified Facebook account of Jamaat’s Ameer, Shafiqur Rahman, has been promoting the survey results, further raising doubts about the survey’s impartiality and intent.
This has led to renewed questions regarding the survey’s credibility and purpose. Some political analysts argue that the release of a survey linked to a specific political faction just before the election could influence voters’ perceptions.
The survey also highlights various patterns of support based on religion, gender, and region. It notes that the Jamaat-led alliance has greater support among Muslims and Christians, while the BNP-led alliance has more support among Hindus and Buddhists.
Regarding the referendum, the survey reveals that nearly 75 per cent of people are aware of it, with 89 per cent indicating they would vote ‘Yes’. However, due to the political affiliations of the survey organisation and the individuals involved, the survey’s legitimacy and neutrality have been called into question, intensifying the ongoing debate.
