Amidst the frantic, rain-slicked aisles of Karwan Bazar, Rafiq Uddin moves with weary precision, a man fighting a losing battle. A private sector employee, his shopping habits have undergone a radical, fragmented evolution.
“I used to clear the list for the entire month in a single trip,” he says, gesturing to a sparsely filled bag. “Now, I simply can’t afford the upfront cost. I return several times a month, chipping away at essentials, yet even when I buy in bulk, the volume is thinner.”
Luxuries, the “fancy” extras that once punctuated his bags, have vanished, casualties of a budget stretched past breaking.
This domestic struggle mirrors a global fever. Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Bangladesh has endured four punishing years of relentless inflation, widening the chasm between living costs and stagnant household earnings. Rafiq’s ledger tells the story: a basket of goods that cost Tk100 in 2022 now demands Tk140 in 2026.
Official figures claim national wages rose 33 per cent in the same period, but Rafiq finds the government’s arithmetic impossible to reconcile with his reality. For him, price hikes are a daily tax, while wage growth remains a paper-thin theory.
Data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the World Bank, and the IMF confirm the squeeze. Poverty reduction, once steady, has slowed to a crawl. For those on fixed or limited incomes, “economic equilibrium” has shifted into permanent pressure. As the gap between survival costs and pay widens, citizens like Rafiq bridge the deficit with sacrifice. Inflation may be a statistic for some, but for millions it is a lived crisis.
Inflation outpacing wages
Bangladesh’s economic landscape is defined by a sobering divergence between living costs and worker wallets. Since May 2022, the Wage Rate Index has consistently trailed inflation, trapping households in negative real wage growth. As recently as FY2021, wage growth of 6.35 per cent outstripped inflation at 5.56 per cent. That fragile balance snapped in 2022, marking the start of purchasing power erosion that continues without a pause for a single month.
The descent accelerated between 2023 and 2024. By FY23, inflation climbed to 7.42 per cent, leaving stagnant wages behind. July 2024 marked a brutal watermark: inflation peaked at 11.66 per cent while wage growth lingered at 7.93 per cent, creating a cavernous 3.73-point deficit in real earnings.
Though inflation moderated slightly by summer 2025, relief was superficial. By April 2026, essentials remained elevated at 9.04 per cent, still outpacing wage growth at 8.16 per cent, leaving workers with a persistent shortfall.
This deficit is more than dry statistics—it is reshaping homes. For the salaried middle class and those on limited incomes, survival has become subtraction. Families abandon discretionary spending and scale back investments in children’s education.
In precarious cases, the crisis moves from ledger to dinner table, forcing compromises on nutrition. As purchasing power evaporates, maintaining a basic standard of living has become the decade’s defining challenge.
Food security at risk: Children’s plates grow lighter
The marketplace crisis has migrated to the dinner table. Rozina Begum, a private sector employee shopping at Uttar Badda Bazar, finds official talk of wage growth hollow.
Her salary has been frozen for two years, forced to contend with rising costs. “When my son was younger, vitamins weren’t a luxury; meat, milk, and fresh vegetables were pillars of his diet,” she recalls bitterly. “Now, the math doesn’t work. Prices move faster than I can think.”
Two kilograms of meat that once lasted a week have been halved to one. Milk, once a daily staple, is now a rare indulgence. Across the country, parents perform grim triage on grocery lists, cutting nutrients essential for healthy life.
Nutritionists warn these compromises during formative childhood years will have permanent stakes: stunted growth, weakened immunity, diminished cognitive development. For Rozina and millions like her, the lighter plate is not just a symptom of inflation, it is a long-term threat to the nation’s future.
Hobbies, travel, and family ties fray
The squeeze extends beyond food, fraying social and emotional life. Khalid Islam, a Dhaka-based professional from Jashore, embodies this isolation. He has not visited his family home in nearly two years. “By the time I’ve covered rent and sent what’s left to support my family, nothing remains for the journey,” he admits.
Transport costs alone reach Tk2,000, making visits impossible when paired with soaring rent and reunion expenses. Khalid has missed four consecutive Eid celebrations, his seat at the family table left empty.
This is not isolated homesickness but part of a wider cultural retreat. Across urban Bangladesh, extracurricular activities, leisure travel, and social engagements, the small joys that once provided reprieve, have been excised from budgets.
As burdens intensify, distance between loved ones grows, stretching social ties to breaking point. For Khalid, inflation’s true cost is measured not just in taka, but in lost moments and missed milestones.
The pensioner’s shrinking world
For those on fixed incomes, the crisis is a siege. Selim Hossain, a 67-year-old former civil servant, navigates Meradia market with a heavy heart. Once secure with a government post, he now relies entirely on a pension frozen in time while costs soar. “I receive the exact same pension today that I did years ago,” he laments. “But its power has withered. The sum that once anchored us for a month now evaporates within days.”
Beyond groceries lies a harsher burden: rising costs of medication and doctor’s fees. Age advances, bills mount, and the elderly cannot retreat. “The worry about what comes next makes me feel worse than any ailment,” Selim admits. For senior citizens, “limited income” is no longer just a financial status – it is a cage, with walls closing in.
The middle class: From stability to precariousness
Bangladesh’s middle class, once resilient, finds its stability exhausted. Professor Muhammad Shahadat Hossain Siddiqui of Dhaka University warns that for those with stagnant salaries, the ability to absorb shocks has vanished. The most acute risk lies with the “vulnerable poor” – those once just above the poverty line now dragged beneath it.
The horizon offers little comfort.
Economists warn that a proposed fuel price hike will act as a fresh catalyst, driving transport and production costs higher. Siddiqui argues Bangladesh’s inflation is sustained not just by global volatility but by domestic policy failures. “The longevity of this inflation is a result of structural fragility,” he notes, citing inconsistent fiscal management and lack of coordination between financial institutions. Without overhaul, the middle class will continue to bear the brunt of a crisis rooted as much in policy as in price.
Poverty’s resurgence
Bangladesh, once celebrated for poverty alleviation, has seen its trajectory reverse. Since 2022, poverty has climbed for three consecutive years, unraveling social gains. In 2022, the poverty rate stood at 18.7 per cent; by 2025, it swelled to 21.4 per cent. In three years, roughly six million people were pushed back into poverty. By late 2025, an estimated 36 million citizens lived below the poverty line.
The World Bank’s Bangladesh Development Update (April 2026) adds harrowing insight. Before conflict escalated in the Middle East, projections suggested 1.7 million Bangladeshis would rise above poverty in 2026. That hope has shrunk to 5,00,000, meaning 1.2 million lost opportunity before it began.
Just as the Ukraine war ignited food and non-food inflation, Middle East conflict could add another 0.5 points to inflation. Siddiqui observes that Bangladesh’s “natural trend” of poverty reduction has been dismantled by relentless inflation. Poverty is no longer a shadow receding—it is a tide rising again.
Market realities: Prices continue to climb
Dhaka’s wholesale hubs reveal a marketplace under siege. Vendors at Karwan Bazar cite rising fuel costs and fractured supply chains. Fish prices have leapt Tk50–100 per kilogram, aubergines climbed from Tk80 to Tk100, cucumbers hit Tk120, and potatoes, once the poor’s safety net, reached Tk110 per five kilograms.
Eggs rose, drumstick (moringa) hit Tk150. Poultry offered minor relief, but fruit stalls became “no-go zones.” Apples cost Tk300, pomegranates Tk400, grapes Tk650 per kilogram.
This hyper-inflationary environment has altered trade rhythms. Vendors report plummeting sales as consumers pivot from variety to survival. Recent Tk 50 hikes across fruit varieties dampened demand. Dhaka’s vibrant commerce is replaced by grim austerity, where every purchase is weighed against deficits.
What is to be done
To navigate this economic storm, Professor Shahadat Hossain Siddiqui argues that there is no “silver bullet.” Instead, the recovery demands a sophisticated, three-tiered offensive involving monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and a radical overhaul of market management.
At the helm, the central bank must wield monetary policy with surgical precision; by tightening interest rates and controlling the money supply, it can drain excess liquidity from the system. While this may not instantly slash the price of a loaf of bread, it is a vital step in cooling the broader inflationary fever and stabilising the cost of imports.
Simultaneously, the government’s fiscal strategy must undergo a period of rigorous pruning. The focus should shift from discretionary spending towards a reinforced commitment to productive sectors such as agriculture and logistics. By investing heavily in the food supply infrastructure today, the state can alleviate price pressures in the long run.
Economists also stress that the very structure of the marketplace requires a structural revolution. By shortening supply chains to link farmers directly with consumers and curbing the influence of middlemen through robust market monitoring and controlled transport costs, the “hidden tax” on essentials can be dismantled.
Economist M Masrur Reaz stresses the need for significant efforts to strengthen the supply of essentials to prevent inflation from rising further for the fifth consecutive year
Ultimately, the human cost remains the most urgent variable. If wages continue to languish beneath the rate of inflation, the “real income” of the nation will keep evaporating. Addressing this requires more than just market adjustments; it necessitates a meaningful recalibration of the minimum wage and a significant expansion of social protection nets.
Without these safeguards, the gap between what a worker earns and what a worker needs will only continue to widen, leaving millions trapped in an unsustainable struggle for survival.
