Many senior US officials are sceptical that the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will trigger a near-term collapse of the Islamic Republic, despite public statements from President Donald Trump urging Iranians to seize the moment, according to sources familiar with intelligence assessments.
Khamenei was killed on Saturday during a joint US-Israeli military operation targeting Iran’s leadership and strategic infrastructure. Before and after the strikes began, Trump and other officials suggested that weakening or toppling Iran’s clerical system was among Washington’s objectives, alongside crippling Tehran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programmes.
“I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment … and take back your country,” Trump said on Sunday in a video message posted on Truth Social.
Privately, however, US intelligence officials have expressed serious doubts that Iran’s opposition is capable of overthrowing the theocratic system established after the 1979 revolution, three US officials told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
None of the officials ruled out the possibility that the government could eventually fall. But they said such an outcome was far from likely or even probable in the short term, despite leadership losses from ongoing US and Israeli air strikes and widespread public anger following a violent crackdown on protests in January.
Earlier intelligence assessments presented to the White House in the weeks before the attack concluded that if Khamenei were killed, he would probably be replaced by hardline figures drawn from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or equally conservative clerics, two sources said.
One US official familiar with internal White House deliberations said IRGC leaders were unlikely to capitulate voluntarily, in part because they benefit from an extensive patronage network designed to preserve internal loyalty and cohesion.
The CIA assessments followed at least one report from another US intelligence agency noting that no IRGC defections occurred during January’s mass anti-government protests, which were met with force by Iranian security services. Several sources said such defections would probably be a prerequisite for any successful revolution.
All sources requested anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.
Trump said on Sunday that he intended to reopen communication channels with Tehran, signalling that Washington does not expect the government to collapse immediately. The White House did not respond to a request for comment. The CIA declined to comment.
Inside Iran, President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday that a temporary leadership council comprising himself, the head of the judiciary and a member of the Guardian Council had assumed the duties of supreme leader.
Security chief Ali Larijani accused the United States and Israel of attempting to fragment and plunder Iran and warned that “secessionist groups” would face a harsh response if they acted. Iranian state television reported that the recent wave of air strikes included the bombing of a girls’ primary school, although Reuters could not independently verify those reports.
US intelligence discussions have also focused on whether Khamenei’s death could alter Tehran’s approach to nuclear negotiations. Two officials said there has been significant debate since January across US agencies about whether his removal would prompt a shift in Iran’s negotiating stance, but no consensus has emerged.
Officials have also weighed whether his death would deter Iran from rebuilding missile or nuclear capabilities. Those deliberations remain ongoing, the sources said.
In the aftermath of January’s protests, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff held several conversations with Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, two officials said. The contacts fuelled speculation about whether Washington might support him should the current system collapse.
In recent weeks, however, senior US officials have grown more pessimistic about the prospects of any opposition figure backed by Washington gaining control of the country, the sources added.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior US intelligence official now at the Atlantic Council, said that any successful effort to end the regime would depend on how security forces respond once US and Israeli strikes subside.
“At the end of the day, once U.S. and Israeli strikes stop, if the Iranian people come out, their success in promoting the end of the regime will depend on the rank and file standing aside or aligning with them,” he said.
