A truce between the United States and Iran might be a break-point for the Gulf region. Violence in the Middle East that could expand to a wider war appeared to have taken control earlier this month, but Washington and Tehran appeared to be making steps toward a diplomatic solution. The possible cancellation of additional attacks on Iran by the United States, announced by President Donald Trump and accompanied by reports of ongoing negotiations on a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two countries, has created a measure of hope. The ramifications of any agreement remain unclear, but one thing is becoming apparent: the Gulf states must change their long-term security architecture as the war they did not instigate and would not want to see come to a close draws to a close.
To many Gulf leaders, this American security umbrella seemed to offer stability in a volatile neighbourhood. However, this old model has weaknesses that were revealed during the Iran-Iraq War. Though the U.S. military has been based in the region mostly for defence, several of the Gulf states were attacked by Iranian missiles and drones during the war. Iranian officials used the term ‘brotherly nations’ to refer to the Gulf nations time and again, but attacked areas where American military facilities were present. This paradox has shaped the region’s security situation as it is today.
That has created a dilemma for Gulf leadership, one that can no longer be ignored. Just the presence of American troops to bolster deterrence can increase the vulnerability to escalation between Washington and Tehran. As missiles and drones crossed the skies of the Gulf, the weakness of external guarantees of security became clear. The war has demonstrated that there can be a strategic link between indirect participant states and the target states.
From an economic perspective, the war has further prompted a strategy review. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping highlighted the vulnerability of the Strait’s economic arteries. This narrow waterway is one of the most important chokepoints in global oil shipping, in fact, passing approximately 20% of it. The disruption has an immediate impact on the world energy market and the regional economies.
However, not all areas in the Gulf felt the impact of the conflict. Saudi Arabia showed more resilience by rerouting some of its oil exports to Red Sea ports via the East-West Pipeline. Oman enjoyed the luxury of having significant ports away from the Strait of Hormuz and, at the same time, benefited from lower energy rates. The UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar were hit harder, however, as they depend on the Strait of Hormuz as a channel for exporting hydrocarbons.
These disturbances coincided with favourable circumstances. The countries in the Gulf have been investing heavily in economic diversification strategies to reduce their reliance on oil revenues. Secure, flowless traffic between countries is essential for Saudi Arabia’s 2030 agenda, the UAE’s dream of becoming a financial hub, Qatar’s tourism and services development, and Bahrain’s financial sector reforms. The war showed how easily such long-term development goals can be jeopardised by geopolitical instability.
Consequently, Gulf governments are likely to focus more on incorporating economic security into more comprehensive strategic planning. Other pipelines/transport corridors and improved marina facilities may be viable alternatives. But these are not an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz’s capacity and efficiency in the near future. Many years of development, a massive investment, and technological coordination are needed to develop meaningful alternatives.
The developments coincided with a new recognition that regional stability can only be achieved through external balancing and other measures. For sustainable security, some accommodation on the part of regional actors will be needed. The recent war may further drive this trend, as it has made the costs of long wars even more severe.
There are considerable hurdles to clear, however. Iran’s missile attacks on the Gulf areas have fueled suspicions and led to doubts about Tehran’s desire for peaceful coexistence. Requirements for non-aggression pacts and for regional security pacts are hard to align with recent military operations. Dialogue will remain vital, but before more ambitious security frameworks are developed, confidence-building measures will be needed.
The first approach could be to revisit ideas such as the Hormuz Peace Initiative, introduced in 2019. The idea is to create a security arrangement between Iran, Iraq, and the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. It would seek to reduce interdependence with others and encourage region-wide shared responsibilities for regional stability. While perhaps not feasible in politics at this time, the rationale is strong. The countries of the Gulf share mutual interests in energy security, maritime stability, economic development, and conflict prevention.
A hybrid security architecture for the Gulf is likely to prevail in the future. Gulf states are not expected to give up their security ties with Washington, but are more likely to ‘diversify’ them. Some of the old-fashioned alliances, increased regional cooperation, increased diplomacy, and increased domestic defence resources would be part of the strategy.
Recent developments indicate that the Gulf states are already moving in this direction. Signs of greater strategic autonomy include increased investments in defence industries, cybersecurity, missile defence, and military modernisation. In September last year, there was also a mutual defence agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as another option for regional cooperation to complement the security cooperation currently provided by Western countries.
The future of the region’s security environment may also be shaped by China and other emerging powers. In addition to its mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Beijing has demonstrated its growing diplomatic significance through its expanding economic power. China is unlikely to supplant the United States as a leading provider of security, but its growing presence in the region is leading to a more multipolar strategic environment.
As the ceasefire comes into sight, the Gulf states have a historic opportunity to rethink regional security. The aim is not to prevent a new war but to create a safer and more peaceful regional system. This will require external cooperation, regional diplomacy, the development of its own capabilities, and dialogue with established competitors.
Washington, Tehran, Beijing, and other foreign capitals will not be the only ones that will decide the fate of the Gulf. It will increasingly depend on the goodwill of the Gulf states to develop a shared vision of regional stability. Over the past few years, many of our beliefs have been misguided, as witnessed by the recent war.
Finally, the post-conflict phase may be the time to develop a more resilient security system that is not only based on deterrence and alliances but also on regional ownership, dialogue, and cooperation. Whether that is an opportunity the leaders of the Gulf can seize is one of the major geopolitical questions in the Middle East to be answered in the coming years.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author
The writer is a Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Director, Hong Kong Research Centre for Asian Studies-Bangladesh Center (RCASBC). Email: [email protected]
