Arsenal remain four points clear at the top of the Premier League, but their recent wobble has sharpened focus on an issue that has quietly followed them all season: a misfiring attack.
Despite leading the table, Arsenal have scored only the fifth most goals in the division, six fewer than second-placed Manchester City. The contrast between results and output is stark. Arteta’s side are underperforming their expected goals by 3.75, a gap that reflects not chance creation, but a failure to convert.
The goalless draw at Nottingham Forest and Sunday’s 3-2 defeat by Manchester United brought that problem into full view. Arsenal controlled large spells of both matches yet lacked the cutting edge to put them away. It leaves them three league games without a win and increasingly reliant on set-pieces and moments from midfield rather than sustained production from their forwards.
Per Fotmob, none of Arsenal’s attackers feature among the league’s top 20 scorers. Leandro Trossard is the highest-placed Arsenal player, ranked 21st with five goals. Bukayo Saka has not scored in his past 13 appearances in all competitions and is underperforming his expected goals by 1.6. Gabriel Martinelli has gone 13 Premier League matches without a goal, while Noni Madueke is without one in 25 league outings.
According to Understat, Viktor Gyokeres’ numbers underline the problem. His expected goals total of 6.9 suggests he should be among the league’s top 15 scorers, yet he has only five goals, all but confirming a finishing slump rather than a lack of service.
The data backs up the eye test. Arsenal are creating chances at a title-winning rate, but finishing them like a side fighting its own nerves.
Roy Keane framed the issue as psychological as much as technical. “They’re feeling the pressure and it’s how they deal with it over the next month or two,” he said on Sky Sports. “I can’t believe they don’t look like a confident team for where they are in the league.”
Even with those flaws, the bigger picture remains favourable. Opta still rate Arsenal overwhelming favourites to win the title, giving them an 84.44 per cent chance of finishing top. Their rivals have been inconsistent and Arsenal’s run-in is relatively kind, with just two remaining matches against sides currently in the top six.
Yet margins shrink at this stage of a title race. When goals dry up, control turns fragile. Against Manchester United, Arteta attempted to force the issue with a quadruple substitution while trailing 2-1. Arsenal drew level, but their inability to sustain pressure late on proved costly.
“We have to do more,” Arteta said afterwards. “We really certainly tried to do our very best, but we weren’t efficient enough against a team that is very well organised, and we got punished because of our own mistakes as well.”
With Champions League qualification already secured and a group-stage match against bottom side Kairat to come on Wednesday, Arteta has a chance to rotate and refresh his attacking options before Saturday’s league trip to Leeds.
Wayne Rooney believes Arsenal remain favourites, but warned that the warning signs are real. “You need your forwards scoring at this stage of the season,” he said on Match of the Day.
Arsenal’s season still points towards silverware. But unless their attackers start matching their expected numbers with real ones, the pressure that Keane described will only grow louder.
