Bangladesh could face a sharply higher subsidy burden and more expensive electricity as it expands reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), with its annual import bill projected to reach $8.5 billion after 2030, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
The projection assumes an average LNG price of $12 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and annual imports rising from 327.8 billion cubic feet in 2025, which cost the country $3.88 billion, to around 730 billion cubic feet.
At an average price of $20 per MMBtu, the annual bill could climb to $14 billion, IEEFA estimates.
The expansion could push LNG’s share of Bangladesh’s gas consumption from around 33 per cent in 2025 to more than 60 per cent after 2030, increasing the country’s exposure to international price volatility at a time when domestic gas production is struggling to meet demand.
The financial pressure is already evident.
IEEFA’s report released on 5 November says the government must provide more than Tk60 in subsidy for every cubic metre of gas when imported LNG costs $20 per MMBtu.
Disruptions in supply have also forced Bangladesh to buy LNG at higher prices in the spot market during 2026.
Higher import costs could widen the gap between the price at which the government buys gas and the tariff charged to consumers, requiring more public subsidy or higher retail prices. Any increase in gas prices for power plants could also raise electricity generation costs and put pressure on power tariffs.
An IEEFA analysis has estimated that if the gas price for power plants rises from Tk15.50 to Tk25 per cubic metre, the fuel cost of electricity from a combined-cycle gas turbine operating at 55% efficiency would increase from Tk2.88 to Tk4.65 per kilowatt-hour.
The risks extend beyond the import bill. Greater dependence on overseas supplies would leave Bangladesh more vulnerable to international price spikes and disruptions in LNG shipments. Even expanded import capacity would not guarantee reliable supply if global prices become unaffordable or deliveries are interrupted.
Bangladesh’s planned LNG infrastructure expansion includes two additional floating storage and regasification units and a land-based terminal.
IEEFA warns that the country could end up with costly infrastructure operating below capacity if it cannot afford to import enough LNG. Under its projection, imports of around 730 billion cubic feet would represent about 65 per cent utilisation of the total terminal capacity after the planned additions.
The warning comes as Bangladesh continues to face a substantial gap between gas demand and supply despite importing LNG and commissioning new gas-fired power plants.
The November report says the country has commissioned three LNG-fired plants since 2021, but high LNG and electricity costs have increased subsidy requirements and reliance on external financing, while unreliable supplies have failed to eliminate gas shortages.
IEEFA has urged Bangladesh to reduce its exposure to imported fuel by strengthening domestic gas exploration and production, expanding renewable energy, improving industrial energy efficiency and increasing regional electricity imports.
It has also identified demand-side electrification as a way to reduce gas consumption, including replacing gas-fired industrial equipment with efficient electric alternatives.
