India and the United States are quietly intensifying diplomatic exchanges on Bangladesh’s rapidly evolving political situation, signalling a possible recalibration of their approaches ahead of the country’s national election on 12 February.
High-level discussions in Washington were followed by closely watched meetings in Dhaka this week, underscoring Bangladesh’s growing strategic importance to both capitals.
In Washington on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar discussed a range of regional issues, including developments in Bangladesh and neighbouring Myanmar.
The talks were soon followed by a diplomatic engagement in Dhaka on Wednesday, where US Ambassador Brent T Christensen and Indian High Commissioner Pranay Verma met at the Indian High Commission in Baridhara.
The timing and sequencing of these engagements have drawn particular attention in diplomatic circles.
Just hours before the meeting between the US and Indian envoys, Ambassador Christensen held a separate meeting at his Gulshan residence with Dr Zobaida Rahman, the wife of BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman, and their daughter, Zaima Rahman.
Observers note that the back-to-back nature of these meetings lends them added diplomatic significance in the current political context.
According to sources familiar with the discussions, a key theme underpinning the recent engagements is the emerging perception that Washington and Delhi may be exploring different political outcomes in Bangladesh.
Diplomatic circles are abuzz with speculation that the United States is increasingly open to a political dispensation in which Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami plays a leading role, while India appears more comfortable with the prospect of a government led by Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
Diplomatic analysts believe that the US ambassador’s meeting with members of the BNP chairman’s family on the same day as the subsequent interaction with the Indian high commissioner was not coincidental.
Rather, they see it as part of a broader effort by Washington and Delhi to exchange assessments, reduce uncertainties and avoid working at cross purposes as Bangladesh approaches a decisive political moment.
A diplomatic source close to the developments told TIMES Wednesday night that both countries have strong and enduring interests in Bangladesh, making coordination essential.
“As strategic partners, it is important for Delhi and Washington to exchange notes on their respective assessments of the upcoming election—who is likely to form the next government and how they intend to engage with it,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters.
“This is a forward-looking approach aimed at removing misunderstandings, if any, about Bangladesh’s future political direction.”
The source added it is no secret that during the Awami League’s time in power, the United States and India often held competing perceptions of Bangladesh’s political trajectory and, at times, engaged in a subtle struggle over influence in Dhaka. The current outreach, he said, suggests an effort to avoid a repeat of that dynamic.
Another diplomatic source emphasised Bangladesh occupies a central place in India’s strategic calculus, particularly because of security considerations along its eastern frontier.
“For Washington, Bangladesh represents a different set of national interests, ranging from regional stability to broader Indo-Pacific calculations,” the source said.
“Both countries are now trying to ensure that Dhaka does not once again become a battleground for competing geopolitical agendas, as happened during the Awami League period.”
According to the source, who was not authorized to speak to media, engagement between Delhi and Washington on Bangladesh is likely to continue across multiple platforms. India, in particular, is expected to press its priorities while seeking to bring the United States on board where possible to achieve overlapping objectives.
