A prolonged standoff with Iran could leave US President Donald Trump facing greater political and economic challenges than before the conflict began, as diplomatic efforts stall and the risk of renewed hostilities looms.
Iran’s military has warned that a US-Israel war could resume, saying it is “fully prepared for any new adventures or foolishness from the Americans.” At the same time, Trump has rejected Tehran’s latest proposal to de-escalate tensions, saying it includes demands he “can’t agree to.”
According to a senior Iranian official, Tehran’s proposal called for reopening shipping in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and ending the US blockade, while postponing negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme. Washington, however, insists that nuclear issues must be addressed upfront, making the proposal a non-starter.
Four weeks after the United States and Israel suspended their bombing campaign, no agreement has been reached to formally end a conflict that has already caused one of the most severe disruptions to global energy supplies in recent history.
Iran has effectively restricted most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for over two months, while Washington imposed its own counter-blockade on vessels linked to Iranian ports. The waterway, which typically carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil, has become the focal point of the crisis.
Risk of renewed conflict
With no clear diplomatic breakthrough in sight, the possibility of renewed confrontation remains high. US officials have indicated that options under consideration range from extending the naval blockade to launching a “short and powerful” series of military strikes or even taking partial control of the strait to restore shipping flows.
European diplomats, already strained in their relations with Washington, expect the standoff to persist. “It’s hard to see how this will end soon,” one diplomat said.
Iran, meanwhile, has maintained a defiant posture, leveraging its control over the strait to exert pressure on global energy markets and the US and its allies.
Unmet war objectives
Despite significant military action, many of Washington’s key objectives remain unfulfilled. While US and Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military capabilities, broader goals – ranging from curbing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions to forcing political change – have yet to be achieved.
A stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to remain intact despite earlier strikes, raising concerns that Iran could still advance its nuclear programme. Tehran maintains that its enrichment activities are for peaceful purposes and has demanded recognition of that right.
The conflict has also failed to halt Iran’s support for regional allies, including Hezbollah, Houthi movement and Hamas.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth rejected suggestions that the conflict had become a “quagmire,” although earlier expectations of a quick resolution have not materialised.
Mounting political costs
The ongoing impasse carries growing risks for Trump domestically. A prolonged crisis is expected to sustain high global energy prices, with US gasoline costs already rising above $4 per gallon – adding pressure on American consumers and the broader economy.
Falling approval ratings and concerns over economic fallout could weigh heavily on Republican prospects in the upcoming midterm elections. Recent polling suggests Trump’s approval has dropped significantly amid the drawn-out conflict.
At the same time, Washington faces strategic challenges abroad. Relations with European allies have been strained, particularly over the decision to launch military action without broader consultation. Trump has also criticised NATO partners for failing to contribute naval support to secure the strait.
Toward a ‘frozen conflict’
With negotiations deadlocked, analysts warn the crisis could evolve into a “frozen conflict” – a prolonged stalemate without a clear resolution. Such a scenario would likely require sustained US military presence in the Middle East while offering little prospect of a decisive outcome.
Complicating matters further is a shift within Iran’s leadership, where hardline elements, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have consolidated power following the killing of several senior figures, including Ali Khamenei, during earlier strikes.
Trump, who had initially pledged to avoid prolonged foreign entanglements, now faces mounting pressure to end a conflict that shows no clear path to resolution. With both sides entrenched and unwilling to compromise on core demands, the standoff risks becoming a long-term geopolitical and economic flashpoint.
