In a small sweet shop in Merul Badda, Dhaka, or at the bustling Karwan Bazar wholesale market, one scene has become strikingly clear: everything is gradually shrinking. From the size of samosas at a tea stall to the shopping bags of middle-class buyers, a silent story of contraction unfolds everywhere.
This visible shrinkage is not sudden; it reflects a systemic economic crisis gripping the daily lives of millions across the country.
The latest data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) highlights the depth of this crisis. In May, the country’s overall inflation rose to 9.42 per cent, the highest since February 2025.
For ordinary people, these figures are more than mere numbers. They translate into cutting items from the food list, compromising children’s nutrition, or forgoing essential medicines.
Examining the main drivers, a stark disconnect between government policy and market reality becomes evident. In May, average wage growth was 8.21 per cent. Basic economic logic dictates that when living costs rise faster than income, people’s savings and purchasing power inevitably shrink. In May, this gap pushed ordinary people into extreme uncertainty.
A deeper look at the figures shows that overall inflation rose by 0.38 percentage points from 9.04 per cent in April, driven mainly by surging food prices. Food inflation jumped 0.67 percentage points to 9.06 per cent, up from 8.39 per cent in April, while non-food inflation rose to 9.71 per cent from 9.57 per cent.
Rural areas are feeling the pinch more acutely than cities. Overall rural inflation in May rose 0.43 percentage points to 9.48 per cent, with non-food inflation nearing double digits at 9.98 per cent. In urban areas, overall inflation rose 0.23 percentage points to 9.25 per cent, with food inflation at 9.29 per cent and non-food inflation at 9.24 per cent.
This surge is expected to worsen further due to state decisions such as electricity and fuel price hikes. Fuel oil prices were increased twice, on 19 April and 31 May, coupled with recently higher electricity tariffs. Market observers note that while the April hike is reflected in May’s statistics, the 31 May increase and higher electricity costs will have a more prominent effect in June.
Small and medium urban entrepreneurs have borne the brunt of this macroeconomic storm. Facing rising raw material costs and declining consumer purchasing power, small food-business owners in Dhaka are adopting a strategy economists call “shrinkflation,” reducing the size and weight of products rather than raising prices to avoid losing customers.
Md Shahidul Islam, owner of Mojaddeddi Sweets House in Merul Badda, documents this crisis daily. A year ago, he sold 700–900 samosas per day; now sales have dropped to 300–500. Yet his monthly expenses for oil, potatoes, flour, and LPG gas total approximately Tk194,000, making survival with reduced profit margins his main concern.
A similar situation prevails at ‘BSMF Kabab House’ in Bakhshi Bazar. Despite selling around 800 fried items daily, employee Abdul Qader said soaring prices for flour, potatoes, cooking oil, and LPG gas have pushed profits to the bottom even with each item priced at Tk10.
Over the past year, market prices for cooking oil and LPG gas have risen by 25–30 per cent, leaving medium and small business owners struggling to avoid losses.
Even more distressing is the deterioration of food security among ordinary people. In Karwan Bazar, pale faces and small polythene bags reveal how far shoppers have fallen behind in the fight for nutrition.
The plight of private-sector employee Rafiqul Uddin illustrates this. Compared with 2022, his market expenses have increased by around 35–40 per cent, yet his salary has remained stagnant. He now shops in small, repeated trips, which increases overall expenditure due to transport costs and higher retail prices.
Ali Ahmed, another shopper, said that previously a Tk20,000 income allowed his family a barely comfortable life. Now, with coarse rice at Tk60 per kg and fine rice at Tk85, his entire budget has been overturned.
The pressure on women is even more acute. Shirin Akter, a housemaid in Badda, now bears full responsibility for her household after her son lost his source of income.
Meanwhile, in North Badda, Suhana Begum tries to survive on just Tk160 for the market. Dependent on her day-labourer husband’s irregular income, she buys vegetables for Tk30, two kilograms of coarse rice, a small portion of lentils, and soybean oil, striving to provide food for the day.
