The revived Maldives-Mauritius dispute over the Chagos Islands and surrounding waters carries major implications for Maldivian domestic politics and broader Indian Ocean geopolitics, involving the US-led Western alliance, India, and China.
Maldivian President Dr Mohamed Muizzu has adopted a confrontational position toward Mauritius following the UK-Mauritius agreement of May 2025. Under the deal, Mauritius gains sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago but leases Diego Garcia back to the UK for 99 years, allowing the US to retain its strategic military base there.
The Maldives protested, asserting that the islands should have been transferred to Malé instead. Key reasons include – Diego Garcia lies just 310 miles from Malé, compared to 1,300 miles from Port Louis, Mauritius’s capital. Maldivian fishermen traditionally visited the islands, with evidence still existing.
“The Maldives has historical connections to the Chagos Islands, known to us as Foalhavahi, which lie south of Maldivian waters,” President Muizzu told the Daily Express in January. “These connections are based on documentary evidence, and we believe give the Maldives a greater claim than any other country.”
He argued that Maldivians knew of the islands centuries before colonial powers entered the Indian Ocean.
Maldivian ancestors named them in Dhivehi, with navigation records mentioning routine fishing trips.
Gravestones on Chagos bear 900-year-old inscriptions in Dhivehi, predating human settlement in Mauritius (uninhabited until the 17th century when Dutch, French, and British arrived). A 16th century patent from a Maldivian king reportedly asserted sovereignty, and DNA evidence indicates modern Chagossians have Maldivian and Creole heritage.
Timeline of Events
In February 2019, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled Britain’s continued occupation of the Chagos Islands unlawful. The UN General Assembly later passed a non-binding resolution urging Britain to transfer the islands to Mauritius within six months. Maldives voted against it, alongside the UK, US, Australia, Israel, and Hungary, fearing it would jeopardize a 2010 submission to define the continental shelf limits between Maldives and Chagos.
In April 2023, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) allocated 47,232 sq km to Maldives and 45,331 sq km to Mauritius in their overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), following Mauritius’s request bolstered by the ICJ opinion.
Maldives initially softened its stance. In October 2022, Attorney General Ibrahim Riffath announced that President Ibrahim Solih had informed Mauritius’s Prime Minister in August 2022 that Maldives would support Mauritius’s claim.
Political Storm in Maldives
Solih’s shift sparked fierce backlash. Opposition parties accused his administration of “treason” and “selling” Maldivian waters. Former President Abdulla Yameen alleged bribery, while Mohamed Nasheed urged Solih to reject the transfer.
Muizzu assumed office in November 2023 pledging to reclaim Chagos and its waters. Advised by international experts, he directed Attorney General Ahmed Usham to prepare a cabinet position paper and initiate legal steps.
Muizzu reversed Solih’s recognition of Mauritian sovereignty. Addressing parliament last Thursday, he declared Maldives does not recognise territorial changes outside its Constitution, rejected the 2023 ITLOS boundary, and announced revisions to the 1996 Maritime Zones Act to designate the 200-nautical-mile EEZ as sovereign territory.
The government formally withdrew Solih’s 2022 letter to Mauritius’s Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, criticising the “sudden, unexplained” policy shift as unreasonable, unjustified, and lacking due process, harming Maldives’s interests mid-proceedings.
Muizzu raised the issue with British Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy in a December 15, 2025, call and lodged formal objections with Britain on November 8, 2024, and January 18, 2026. Following his address, the Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) began patrolling the disputed zone.
Trump’s Somersault
After the May 2025 UK-Mauritius deal, US President Donald Trump branded it “an act of great stupidity,” fearing a pro-China or pro-India Mauritius might end the lease, jeopardising the Diego Garcia base. Trump prefers outright ownership over leases.
The western Indian Ocean remains a US-China rivalry hotspot. Diego Garcia supports US interests across a vast arc, while China’s growing presence alarms Washington and London. Both seek to prevent Mauritius and Maldives from falling into Beijing’s economic orbit; India aims to preserve influence over Mauritius and keep Maldives from fully opening to China.
Maldivians welcomed Trump’s initial criticism, but he later aligned with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, calling the deal the “best” possible under the circumstances. Undeterred, Muizzu pressed the claim, capitalising on popular backing. The issue could boost his People’s National Congress (PNC) in the March 28 local elections, critical amid declining approval due to rising debt. A recent poll ranked former President Yameen highest (5.6/10), ahead of others.
Nasheed’s Speculation
Former President Mohamed Nasheed suggested Muizzu’s actions might have tacit UK-US consent. In an X post, he argued Trump’s eventual support for the deal did not preclude investigating Maldives’s claim or blocking handover to Mauritius. He speculated Maldivian Coast Guard operations in the EEZ occurred with Western approval.
Muizzu’s Offer to US
Despite his pro-China leanings, Muizzu has courted Washington. In a Newsweek interview, he offered to guarantee US military presence in Diego Garcia if sovereignty transferred to Maldives. “President Trump clearly seeks to protect and secure the continuation of the use of Chagos for the US Naval Support Facility,” Muizzu said, pledging parliamentary approval to maintain the status quo.
Implications for India
The dispute affects India, a key Indian Ocean power and steadfast Mauritius supporter, driven by Mauritius’s 70% Indian-origin population (mainly from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, politically influential in India). Mauritius’s security policies reflect strong Indian influence; its National Security Advisor is typically an Indian nominee (currently Rahul Rasgotra from the Indo-Tibetan Border Police).
Mauritius faces little risk of turning pro-China due to demographic ties, unlike Maldives. Yameen and Muizzu previously ran “India Out” campaigns, though Muizzu later moderated. India’s External Affairs Ministry welcomed the Chagos transfer, reaffirming support for Mauritius’s “legitimate claim” and commitment to maritime security and regional stability alongside like-minded partners.
Maldives differs markedly; a 100% Muslim nation compared to India’s Hindu-majority population. Solih’s pro-India administration backed Mauritius, but Muizzu’s opposition risks straining ties. New Delhi’s handling will be closely watched. Trump remains a wildcard: souring US-India relations could prompt him to back Maldives instead.
The Chagos controversy thus intertwines historical claims, maritime rights, domestic politics, and great-power competition in the Indian Ocean.
The author is a Senior Indian Journalist and Geo-political Analyst.
