In the upcoming 13th parliamentary election, BNP candidates are set to face off against Jamaat-e-Islami, with Jamaat anticipating a head-to-head battle in at least 80 constituencies. Once steadfast allies, the two parties have now turned into rivals in a race that could redefine the country’s political landscape.
In the 1991 parliamentary election, Jamaat fielded candidates in 222 seats and won 18 of them. It is said that in several constituencies there was an unwritten and unspoken understanding between the BNP and Jamaat. That year, the BNP formed the government with Jamaat’s support.
In the 1996 election, that alliance broke down. On that single occasion, the BNP and Jamaat contested the election completely separately, with Jamaat-e-Islami winning only three seats after fielding candidates in all 300 constituencies. Thereafter, from 2001 to 2018, the BNP and Jamaat contested elections as allies.
A new contest without the Awami League
In the election scheduled for February, the two parties are again contesting separately. In that Awami League–absent election, Jamaat-e-Islami is the BNP’s main rival. Not only positioning itself as the principal contender, Jamaat is also, for the first time in independent Bangladesh, openly speaking about going to power.
But what is the situation on the electoral ground? Past elections and very recent surveys by various organisations suggest that the BNP is still significantly ahead in the contest. However, according to information from Jamaat’s inner circles, the party expects a close fight with the BNP in at least 80 constituencies this time. In particular, it is expecting more seats than the BNP in the Rangpur division. In addition, it anticipates gains in the Khulna and Rajshahi divisions, and an overall increase in its vote share across the country.
Seats where Jamaat expects a fierce contest
The constituencies where Jamaat sees the prospect of a fierce contest this time are: Panchagarh-2, Thakurgaon-2, Thakurgaon-3, Dinajpur-1, Dinajpur-2, Dinajpur-3, Dinajpur-4, Dinajpur-5, Dinajpur-6, Nilphamari-1, Nilphamari-2, Nilphamari-3, Rangpur-1, Rangpur-4, Rangpur-5, Kurigram-1, Kurigram-4, Gaibandha-1, Gaibandha-2, Gaibandha-3, Gaibandha-4, Joypurhat-1, Bogura-2, Bogura-3, Bogura-4, Chapainawabganj-1, Chapainawabganj-2, Chapainawabganj-3, Naogaon-1, Naogaon-2, Naogaon-4, Rajshahi-1, Rajshahi-2, Rajshahi-3, Natore-2, Natore-3, Sirajganj-4, Sirajganj-5, Pabna-1, Pabna-4, Pabna-5, Meherpur-1, Meherpur-2, Kushtia-2, Kushtia-3, Kushtia-4, Chuadanga-2, Jhenaidah-3, Jashore-1, Jashore-2, Jashore-5, Jashore-6, Narail-2, Bagerhat-3, Bagerhat-4, Satkhira-1, Satkhira-2, Satkhira-3, Satkhira-4, Pirojpur-1, Jamalpur-1, Mymensingh-7, Gazipur-1, Dhaka-15, Sylhet-5, Sylhet-6, Cumilla-12, Feni-2, Lakshmipur-1, Lakshmipur-2, Lakshmipur-3, Chattogram-14, Chattogram-15, Cox’s Bazar-1, Cox’s Bazar-2 and Cox’s Bazar-3.
High-profile battlegrounds
Among these constituencies is Dinajpur-3, where the BNP has announced party chairperson Khaleda Zia as its candidate. This is Khaleda Zia’s birthplace. In the past, her elder sister Khurshid Jahan Haq served as a Member of Parliament from this constituency. After her death, no strong BNP leader emerged there. As a result, Jamaat-e-Islami had been considering the seat promising for itself. The party did not anticipate that the BNP would ultimately field Khaleda Zia as its candidate there.
Although Jamaat-e-Islami has never secured a notable share of votes in Dhaka in the past, for the first time it has become quite optimistic in the upcoming election with former secretary Shah Alam Bakshi as its candidate in the Gazipur-1 constituency. The constituency, comprising Kaliakair and parts of Gazipur City Corporation, has historically been dominated by the Awami League, with the BNP as its main rival. This time, the seat was left vacant in the BNP’s first round of nomination announcements. In the second round, the party awarded the nomination there to its central executive committee member Mojibur Rahman.
Among the constituencies where Jamaat expects a fierce contest this time is Cox’s Bazar-1, the seat of BNP Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed. Jamaat-e-Islami’s candidate there is Abdullah Al Faruk.
In the constituencies of the capital Dhaka, Jamaat-e-Islami has never secured a notable share of votes in the past.
However, this time the party is keen on mounting an all-out fight to win Dhaka-15, as Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman is contesting from the seat. Shafiqur also received the nomination for this constituency from the BNP–Jamaat alliance in the 2018 election.
From allies to rivals
After the Liberation War, Jamaat-e-Islami was banned as an anti-independence force. When BNP founder Ziaur Rahman came to power, he restored the party’s right to engage in politics. From then on, an unwritten alliance between the two parties began. However, this understanding broke down in 1986, when Jamaat took part in the election under autocrat Ershad while the BNP boycotted it.
Later, the two parties again developed closeness during the anti-Ershad movement. That relationship again fractured in 1995 during the movement demanding a caretaker government.
In that movement, the Awami League and Jamaat jointly protested against the BNP government.
As a result, the BNP and Jamaat stood on opposite poles in the 12 June 1996 election.
However, after an electoral debacle, the two parties again forged an alliance from the 2001 election.
That alliance has now broken ahead of the upcoming election following the fall of the Awami League.
