Standing at historic crossroads, BNP envisions forming the government once again after nearly 20 years of challenges, with renewed optimism and confidence in securing an absolute majority in today’s election under the interim government.
Their confidence has been bolstered by massive public turnout at the funeral of the party’s long-time chairperson and former prime minister late Khaleda Zia and large crowds at Tarique Rahman’s rallies upon his return to the country.
Following Khaleda Zia’s death, her son, Tarique, has taken over as the party’s chairman and is expected to be the next prime minister if BNP returns to power.
While several surveys predict a tough competition between BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, BNP leaders are not placing much importance on these polls.
Number of candidates
In this election, BNP has fielded candidates in 291 of the 300 constituencies, with the remaining nine constituencies covered by alliance partners.
However, due to the death of a candidate, the election in Sherpur-3 has been postponed, and the election will now take place in 299 constituencies on 12 February.
Tarique is contesting in Bogura-6 and Dhaka-17 constituencies, marking his first time contesting an election. Among the senior leaders, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir is contesting in Thakurgaon-1.
Other key leaders from the party’s standing committee, including Khondkar Mosharraf Hossain, Mirza Abbas, Abdul Moyeen Khan, Major (retd) Hafizuddin Ahmed, Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku, Gayeshwar Chandra Roy, Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, Dr AZM Zahid Hossain, and Salauddin Ahmed, are contesting in various constituencies.
Among the standing committee members, only Dr Zahid in Dinajpur-6 faces a tough challenge, but others are expected to win with ease.
From struggles to revival
BNP has faced continuous adversity since leaving office in 2006. First, under the army-backed caretaker government and later under the Awami League government, the party endured severe persecution and repression.
During this time, Tarique, the party’s second-in-command at that time, was forced to leave the country due to ill health and was unable to return before the fall of the Awami League government in August 2024.
Three-time former prime minister Khaleda Zia was imprisoned during the Awami League government’s tenure on corruption charges. Despite her illness, she was denied permission to seek medical treatment abroad.
Many other senior leaders were jailed as well. Over the past 18 years, BNP has endured a nightmarish period.
Past elections for BNP
During this difficult period, four national elections were held. Under the army-backed caretaker government, BNP won only 30 seats in one election. BNP boycotted the 2014 and 2024 elections.
In 2018, the party secured only seven seats, thanks to the controversial “midnight vote,” which was widely criticised for electoral manipulation.
The 1991 elections, widely regarded as the most free and fair in Bangladesh’s history, were held under the leadership of president Shahabuddin Ahmed’s interim government. BNP won 140 seats with 30.81 percent of the vote.
In the 12 June 1996 elections, BNP secured 116 seats with 33.61 percent of the vote, an increase from the previous election. Since then, BNP has allied with Jamaat-e-Islami, which makes it difficult to calculate BNP’s independent vote share.
Main rival in the election
This time, BNP’s main political rival is not the Awami League, but its former ally, Jamaat-e-Islami. In the 1991 elections, Jamaat secured 12.13 percent of the vote and won 18 seats.
In 1996, their vote share dropped to 8.61 percent, with just 3 seats. Since 2001, Jamaat has contested elections as part of the BNP-led alliance, making it difficult to assess their independent vote share.
Invisible enemy
However, BNP’s main enemy in this election seems to be the allegations of corruption, extortion, and land-grabbing. Many BNP leaders have been labelled as corrupt and extortionists during their time in power.
After the fall of the Awami League government, several local BNP leaders became embroiled in extortion and land-grabbing activities in their respective areas.
As a result, BNP has expelled nearly 7,500 of its activists for violating party discipline. Despite these efforts, the party still faces these allegations.
Internal struggles
In addition to these external challenges, BNP faces another serious issue: rebel candidates from within the party. In at least 75 constituencies across the country, about 80 local leaders have entered the race as independent candidates.
Information from the ground suggests that at least 30 of these rebel candidates will defeat the official BNP candidates. Additionally, in about 20 other constituencies, BNP’s own candidates and rebel independent candidates will divide the vote, benefiting Jamaat-e-Islami’s candidates.
Amid these calculations, BNP’s senior leaders remain confident that their candidates will win in two-thirds of the constituencies.
To ensure this result, the central election management committee has been working tirelessly, providing necessary instructions to district, upazila, and union-level committees.
On election day, BNP activists are instructed to monitor polling stations from early morning after Fajr prayers.
While BNP leaders have raised concerns about electoral manipulation or “election engineering,” the party’s secretary general has stated that they are not worried about such activities.
