Carlos Alcaraz said on Saturday that Jannik Sinner is the favourite to win the ATP Finals title when the pair meet in Turin on Sunday, after the new world number one set up a much-anticipated championship match against his Italian rival.
Alcaraz advanced with a routine 6-2, 6-4 win over Felix Auger-Aliassime, earning another instalment of a rivalry that has defined much of the season. The Spaniard leads their head to head 10-5 and has claimed four of their five meetings this year, all of which came in finals of top tier events. His victories have included the US Open and Roland Garros, the latter featuring a comeback from two sets down and the saving of three match points, while Sinner prevailed in their Wimbledon final.
Despite that edge, Alcaraz insisted that Sinner deserves the favourite tag given the conditions and the setting. “I mean, I am the number one, and he is playing the best on indoor court. We are playing in front of his home crowd, so I would say he is the favourite,” Alcaraz said. “I do not want to believe it, but I would say he is the favourite for tomorrow.”
The final carries an added layer of intrigue following Alcaraz’s late move to secure the year end number one ranking at Sinner’s expense, and because it will be the Spaniard’s eleventh final of the season in a partisan Italian arena. He joked that he hopes for “three or four people” cheering for him before adding that he will try to stay locked in on his own game.
Auger-Aliassime, an indoor specialist with seven of his eight titles coming indoors, could not disrupt Alcaraz’s rhythm. The top seed broke in the fourth game with a sharp volley, secured another break to pocket the opening set, and closed out the match without needing to hit his most spectacular heights.
Sinner, who beat Alex de Minaur 7-5, 6-2 earlier on Saturday, has yet to lose serve this week. He enters the final on an 18 set winning streak in Turin and has won 30 consecutive matches on indoor hard courts. The four time major winner has not dropped a set at the ATP Finals since losing the 2023 championship match to Novak Djokovic.
“Honestly every matchup with Alcaraz is different. We saw it in Rome and Paris, even if it is the same surface, it can change,” Sinner said.
De Minaur leaves Turin in a more positive frame of mind after admitting he had been in a “dark place” following a damaging group stage loss to Lorenzo Musetti. The Australian fought hard in Saturday’s semi-final, fending off early pressure and creating break chances, but Sinner eventually seized control late in the first set before racing ahead 4-0 in the second and closing out his ninth straight win at the event. At 24, he becomes the youngest player since Lleyton Hewitt in 2004 to reach three ATP Finals title matches.
