Fresh violence in India’s northeastern state of Manipur has reignited fears that a three-year ethnic conflict could spiral further, despite periods of relative calm and repeated government interventions, says Al Jazeera.
The latest unrest was triggered on 7 April, when a bomb blast in the Tronglaobi Awang Leikai area of Bishnupur district killed two children aged five and six from the Meitei community and injured their mother. The children’s father serves in India’s Border Security Force. The attack shattered a fragile lull and set off protests, road blockades and clashes with security forces.
At least seven people have been killed and more than a dozen arrested since the violence resumed, according to available accounts. Demonstrators demanding the arrest of those responsible confronted police, and some set oil tankers on fire. Security forces opened fire during the unrest, killing at least three people on the day of the blast.
The conflict has also disrupted key infrastructure. The main road linking Bishnupur to the Kuki-dominated district of Churachandpur has remained blocked for two weeks, while further violence followed in Ukhrul, where alleged fighters ambushed vehicles on a national highway, killing two men, including a retired soldier.
Manipur, which shares a 400-kilometre border with Myanmar, remains sharply divided along ethnic and geographic lines. The largely Hindu Meitei population is concentrated in the Imphal valley, while the predominantly Christian Kuki-Zo and Naga communities inhabit the surrounding hills.
The roots of the conflict stretch back decades. Historically, the Meiteis dominated the plains, while tribal communities occupied the hills. After India’s independence in 1947, land laws were introduced to preserve that balance, restricting Meiteis from buying land in the hills and granting the Kuki-Zo community scheduled tribe status that ensured access to jobs, education and political representation.
Over time, competing ethno-nationalist movements emerged, with armed groups from Meitei, Kuki and Naga communities demanding autonomy or territorial control. Analysts say these overlapping claims have remained unresolved and continue to drive tensions.
The current phase of violence began in 2023, following a Manipur High Court order widely seen as paving the way for granting scheduled tribe status to the Meitei community. The move alarmed Kuki-Zo groups, who feared losing long-held protections. The decision triggered widespread clashes across the state.
At the time, Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren Singh, a member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and from the Meitei community, faced accusations of bias. Critics said his rhetoric portrayed hill communities as illegal immigrants and criminals, deepening mistrust.
The central government’s response also drew scrutiny. Modi did not visit Manipur during the early stages of the crisis, despite travelling extensively abroad, prompting criticism over the perceived lack of urgency.
Since 2023, more than 260 people have been killed and at least 60,000 displaced, many now living in segregated relief camps. Civil society groups believe the actual figures may be higher. Entire communities have retreated into isolated zones, guarded by both state forces and armed civilians.
Security presence in Manipur has surged, with more than 250 companies of central armed police forces deployed alongside other units. Buffer zones now separate communities, reinforcing divisions rather than easing them.
In February 2025, Biren Singh stepped down as chief minister amid mounting political pressure. His party had already suffered setbacks, losing both parliamentary seats in the state in the 2024 national elections. Modi eventually visited Manipur in September 2025, months after the conflict had taken hold.
His successor, Yumnam Khemchand Singh, also from the BJP, has said the perpetrators of the latest attack remain unidentified and described the bombing as the work of individuals or groups seeking to disrupt peace.
Despite these changes, the conflict continues to affect everyday life. In Tronglaobi village, where the children were killed, many residents depend on farming, but large tracts of agricultural land now fall within heavily militarised buffer zones that neither community can access.
Analysts say the deeper issue lies in unresolved questions of identity, territory and nationalism. Samrat Choudhury, author of “Northeast India: A Political History”, said the conflict reflects overlapping territorial claims rooted in shifting concepts of borders and governance.
“You have a situation in Manipur’s geography, where different groups have ended up claiming overlapping territories,” he said, adding that multiple armed movements hold maximalist positions on land and sovereignty.
Choudhury said the opportunity to contain the crisis was missed early on. “It was a lack of sufficient response from the government that has now led to a de facto division of the state,” he said, questioning whether the situation was receiving adequate attention.
Others point to economic factors sustaining instability. Pradip Phanjoubam, a senior journalist in Manipur, said prolonged unrest benefits groups involved in illicit activities, including narcotics trafficking.
The state lies near the “Golden Triangle”, one of the world’s major drug-producing regions spanning parts of Myanmar and Southeast Asia. The ongoing disorder has created conditions that allow such networks to operate.
