US President Donald Trump’s hardline immigration crackdown could pose a political challenge for Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to a Reuters report based on an Ipsos poll.
The six-day survey, completed on Monday, found that 52 per cent of Americans are less likely to support a congressional candidate who backs Trump’s deportation approach. In contrast, 42 per cent said they would be more likely to support such candidates.
The gap is wider among independent voters, who often decide close elections. About 57 per cent of independents said they prefer candidates who oppose Trump’s deportation policies, while 32 per cent favour those aligned with the president on the issue.
The findings come as Republicans prepare to defend their majorities in both chambers of Congress. The party is already under pressure from rising petrol prices linked to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, adding to broader voter concerns.
Republican lawmakers have largely supported Trump’s immigration policies, reflecting his strong influence over the party since his 2024 election victory on a pledge to curb unauthorised immigration.
Public opinion on the issue has shifted over time. In the weeks following Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, around 50 per cent of Americans approved of his handling of immigration, according to earlier Reuters/Ipsos polling. That figure has since dropped to 40 per cent after more than a year of intensified enforcement measures.
The crackdown has included the deployment of masked federal agents across the country and has been linked to the deaths of two US citizens during enforcement operations.
The poll surveyed 4,557 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of two percentage points.
Recent data suggest enforcement activity may be easing slightly. Immigration and Customs Enforcement recorded just over 1,000 arrests per day in early March, down from nearly 1,300 daily arrests in December. However, the rate remains more than double the levels reported in January 2025.
Only one in four respondents said current detention efforts appear less aggressive than a month earlier. At the same time, 70 per cent said a less aggressive approach would be a positive development.
Analysts say the scale and visibility of enforcement actions may have left a lasting impression on voters.
“People were being pulled out of cars, a priest shot with pepper balls, and Americans killed before our eyes,” said Sarah Pierce, director of social policy at Third Way, referring to incidents in cities including Los Angeles, Chicago and Minneapolis.
Despite concerns over enforcement, the poll shows Americans broadly support border control. About 84 per cent said secure borders are important, while 87 per cent emphasised the need to enforce immigration laws.
At the same time, there is strong support for offering legal status to some migrants already in the country. Around 76 per cent said undocumented migrants with jobs and no criminal record should have a pathway to legal residency.
The mixed views have prompted some Republicans to call for a more measured approach.
Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, whose South Florida district includes many Hispanic voters with immigrant ties, has recently promoted legislation to grant legal status to certain migrants in the country unlawfully.
The proposal has faced criticism from hardliners within her party, though Salazar has said it aligns with Trump’s broader agenda by maintaining border security.
“I’m very concerned about what’s happening within the party with immigration,” she said earlier this month.
The poll results suggest that while immigration remains a key issue for voters, the balance between enforcement and accommodation could shape the political landscape ahead of the midterms.
