Bangladesh, the world’s third-largest rice producer, is paying a heavy price for a staple that remains increasingly unaffordable for ordinary consumers.
Despite official claims of self-sufficiency and record production, the country spent a record $682.4 million (Tk8,312 crore) on rice imports in the 2024–25 fiscal year, an incredible increase of 2,484.3 percent from the previous fiscal. In just the first three months of 2025–26, imports have already cost $54.9 million (Tk674.5 crore), a staggering 5,390% increase compared to the same period in 2023–24.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Bangladesh accounts for nearly seven percent of global rice production. Government data show that in the fiscal 2024–25, Aman production was 16.51 million tonnes, Aus 2.79 million tonnes, and Boro 21.4 million tonnes — a total of 40.71 million tonnes of paddy. The country’s annual rice demand is about 35 million tonnes, theoretically leaving a surplus of more than 5.7 million tonnes. Yet, soaring imports suggest a disconnect between production figures and market realities.
Ekushey Padak-winning agricultural economist Dr Jahangir Alam said government statistics appear overstated. “If production were truly this high, rice prices would not have surged. Most of the stock — around 10 to 15 million tonnes — is controlled by private traders. The government holds only 2–2.2 million tonnes, giving traders the power to manipulate prices for profit,” he said.
Global rice prices fall, domestic prices rise
While international rice prices have fallen over the past year, dropping by more than 36%, local prices have climbed over 13%. The World Bank reported that Thailand’s five-percent white rice export price — the global benchmark — fell from $588.4 per tonne in September 2024 to $374 per tonne in September 2025. In contrast, TCB data show coarse rice prices in Bangladesh rose by 9.52%, medium-grade by 13.04%, and fine rice by 9.03% over the same period.
AHM Shafiquzzaman, president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh, criticised traders for exploiting the market. “When international prices rise, domestic prices spike immediately. But when prices fall globally, consumers rarely benefit. Artificial shortages are created to force up prices, then negotiations with authorities follow — completely unacceptable,” he said.
Rice and inflation
Rice continues to be the largest driver of food inflation in Bangladesh. According to the Planning Commission’s General Economics Division (GED), it contributed 48.37% to food inflation in August 2025. Even as overall inflation moderates slightly, household budgets are still heavily strained.
Government measures — including procurement of 1.7 million tonnes of Boro rice, duty-free import of 500,000 tonnes, and expanded distribution via public food programmes — have so far shown limited effect in stabilising prices.
Shrinking farmland and food security risks
Bangladesh’s cultivable land is steadily declining. Data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics show a drop from 2.008 million acres in 2020 to 1.983 million acres in 2023. The Department of Agricultural Extension estimates over 4 million hectares of farmland have been lost since 1971–72 due to urbanisation, industrial expansion, and infrastructure projects.
Dr Alam warned, “Food security is not just about production; it’s about protecting farmland. If agricultural land continues to shrink, Bangladesh could face dependency despite high yields. Farmer profitability must increase to make agriculture sustainable. Otherwise, farmland is converted for fish farming, industry, or housing, and national self-sufficiency is compromised.”
South Asia’s highest food inflation
Bangladesh currently records the highest food inflation in South Asia. Comparative data show that Sri Lanka’s July inflation was 2.09%, Pakistan -1.79%, Bhutan 6.04%, the Maldives 4.58%, Nepal 2.09%, and India -0.69% in August 2025. Bangladesh’s food inflation reached 7.64% in September 2025.
Dr Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said several factors contribute: poor data on supply and demand, delayed imports, oligopolistic trading behaviour, and weak regulatory oversight. He urged mid-term solutions including mechanisation, productivity improvements, farmer entrepreneurship, and agricultural commercialisation to reduce costs and stabilise prices.
Impact on households
Rising food prices have hit low-income families hardest. A joint survey by CPD and BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) in 2024 found nearly 70% of urban slum households cutting back on protein, while 30% occasionally skipped meals. Even middle-income households substitute nutritious food with cheaper alternatives.
Dr Fahmida Khatun, executive director of CPD, said, “Bangladesh has improved food availability, but affordability and utilisation remain major challenges. Low-income groups increasingly cut essential items like eggs, affecting nutrition and health.”
National statistics show that food accounts for 55% of household spending. Around 62% of families devote at least half their income to food, while one in ten spend more than three-quarters.
Global context: World Food Day
Today marks World Food Day, observed globally to highlight hunger and food security. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said 673 million people go to bed hungry each night, while hundreds of millions more face daily food insecurity. Climate change, conflicts, and political manipulation of hunger exacerbate the crisis.
Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus inaugurated the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty’s new office in Rome alongside Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu. Bangladesh, a co-founder of the alliance, will also mark World Food Day domestically, raising awareness about hunger and food insecurity.
