Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted how vulnerable one of the world’s most important energy routes remains, even with the prospect of a Western naval response, says Reuters.
The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman is the only sea outlet for major Gulf oil and gas producers including Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. About a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes through it. United Nations data shows traffic has fallen by 97 per cent since the US Israeli war against Iran began on 28 February.
Iran has threatened for years to shut the strait, but analysts had seen that as a last resort because of the risk of retaliation and long-term strategic consequences. That appears to have changed after the conflict began with the killing of Iran’s supreme leader. Iranian officials have described the war as existential, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps increasingly directing strategy.
The economic stakes are high. Oil prices briefly rose to their highest level since 2022 on Monday. The United Nations has warned that high prices could trigger another cost-of-living crisis similar to the one after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Analytics firm Kpler says about 33 per cent of the world’s fertilisers, including sulphur and ammonia, also pass through the strait.
The route is hard to defend because shipping lanes are only two nautical miles wide and vessels must turn near Iranian islands and a mountainous coastline that offers cover for Iranian forces, according to shipping broker SSY Global.
Although Iran’s conventional navy has largely been destroyed, the Guards still have multiple ways to threaten shipping, including fast attack craft, mini submarines, mines and even jetskis packed with explosives, said Tom Sharpe, a retired Royal Navy commander. The Centre for Information Resilience says Tehran can produce around 10,000 drones a month.
Sharpe said escorting a handful of ships a day through the strait could be possible in the short term with seven or eight destroyers providing air cover but sustaining that for months would require far more resources. Adel Bakawan, Director of the European Institute for Middle East and North African Studies, said ships would still face suicide attacks even if Iran’s missiles, drones and floating mines were neutralised.
President Donald Trump said on 3 March that the United States would protect oil tankers passing through the strait and had ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation to provide insurance and guarantees for shipping companies. French President Emmanuel Macron said several European countries, India and other Asian states were planning a joint mission, though only after the conflict ends.
Recent experience offers little comfort. Yemen’s Houthis, despite far fewer capabilities than Iran, managed to disrupt most Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab traffic for more than two years despite US and EU-led protection. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have tried to build pipeline alternatives, but they are not currently operational and have also proved vulnerable to attack.
