United States military has severely exhausted its reserves of essential missiles during the conflict with Iran, creating a “near-term risk” of ammunition exhaustion in any upcoming confrontations over the next few years.
According to a fresh analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which correlates with classified Pentagon assessments, the US has utilised at least 45 percent of its Precision Strike Missiles over the past seven weeks of combat.
Moreover, the inventory of THAAD missiles, designed for ballistic intercept, has been halved, while nearly 50 percent of Patriot air defence interceptor missiles have been expended, reports CNN.
Experts and sources familiar with internal Department of Defense data indicate that while the Pentagon recently secured contracts to bolster production, the timeline for replacing these systems spans three to five years, even with heightened industrial capacity.
Whilst the US currently maintains sufficient munitions to continue operations against Iran should the fragile ceasefire collapse, the remaining stockpile is deemed insufficient to face a “near-peer adversary” such as China.
Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps Colonel and co-author of the CSIS report, noted the gravity of the situation.
“The high munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific,” he stated. “It will take one to four years to replenish these inventories and several years after that to expand them to where they need to be.”
In response, Sean Parnell, the chief Pentagon spokesman, maintained that the military “has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing.”
He further asserted, “Since President Trump took office, we have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the US military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests.”
Despite these assurances, the data shows a 30 percent reduction in Tomahawk cruise missiles and a 20 percent decline in long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles, as well as SM-3 and 6 interceptors. Replacing these specific systems could take up to five years.
This depletion stands in contrast to recent remarks by Trump, who claimed the nation is not facing a weaponry shortage, despite requesting extra funding to address the impact of the Iran war on stockpiles.
Last month, Trump remarked, “We’re asking for a lot of reasons, beyond even what we’re talking about in Iran. Munitions at the high end we have a lot, but we’re preserving it.” He added, “It’s a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top.”
Prior to the hostilities, General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had warned the administration that a long-term campaign could compromise the weapons supplies intended to support Israel and Ukraine.
Legislators have also expressed concern regarding the mathematical reality of the conflict. Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat from Arizona, highlighted the challenge posed by Iranian production capabilities.
“The Iranians do have the ability to make a lot of Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, medium range, short range and they’ve got a huge stockpile,” he cautioned. “So, at some point … this becomes a math problem and how can we resupply air defense munitions. Where are they going to come from?”
