US President Donald Trump struck a jubilant tone as he unveiled a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war that triggered the worst energy crisis in modern history and shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
“Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” he posted on Truth Social Sunday.
Oil prices immediately fell. Yet three days later, ship‑tracking data shows marine traffic has barely resumed in the narrow but vital corridor.
Operators and insurers remain cautious, waiting to see if the ceasefire and reopening prove durable, reports Al Jazeera.
Current situation
Before the war, 120–140 vessels crossed Hormuz daily, half of them oil tankers moving around 20 million barrels. Iran closed the strait after US‑Israeli bombing began in late February, and Washington imposed a naval blockade weeks later.
Since Sunday’s announcement, only seven ships have passed through, including a handful of Iranian tankers breaking the blockade — their first crude exports in two months, according to TankerTrackers. More than 550 vessels remain stuck on either side.
Trump insists the strait is “wide open,” but Iranian officials say all transits must be coordinated with the Revolutionary Guard and follow routes hugging Iran’s coast.
Why traffic is slow
Concerns about mines, missile exchanges, and drone attacks linger. Both US and Iranian forces have struck commercial vessels in recent weeks. The strait narrows to just 33km, making it highly vulnerable.
Last week, US forces attacked three commercial ships, killing three Indian sailors. CENTCOM reported redirecting 142 vessels and disabling nine others just a day before the deal was announced.
Negotiations for a final peace accord are set to begin in Switzerland Friday, but analysts warn shipping could still be caught in crossfire. “It will take more than just a political agreement before we see normalisation,” said Haider Anjum of Jyske Bank. Shipowners, he added, need months of incident‑free passage before insurers lower risk assessments.
Key challenges
Mines
Iran threatened to mine Hormuz but never confirmed doing so. US officials claim mine‑laying occurred, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio told senators Iran had “mined large segments.” Even unverified reports are enough to halt traffic, as insurers refuse coverage. Clearing and certifying a safe corridor could take two months.
Tolls
Transit has historically been free, but Tehran now insists on fees for “coordination” and safety services. The US and GCC states reject this as a violation of navigation freedom. Iran formed the Persian Gulf Strait Authority in May to oversee operations. Economists warn Washington may sanction vessels that pay such fees, though Iran is unlikely to surrender leverage over the strait.
Insurance
War‑risk premiums skyrocketed during the conflict, reaching up to 5% of hull value compared with 0.25% pre‑war. Rates have eased to 1–3% but remain high. Without affordable coverage, shipping flows cannot normalize. “Uncertainty about the durability of the peace deal will pose several challenges,” said economist Nader Habibi.
UN shipping chief Arsenio Dominguez welcomed the reopening as “an important step toward restoring safety,” but cautioned that implementation will take time. Analysts say both sides have incentives to keep Hormuz open, yet risks remain layered: mines below, missiles above, and insurance constraints in between.
Habibi noted crews will remain wary until unresolved issues are settled. Anjum predicted it could take four months of stability before shipowners and insurers consider the strait safe.
For now, Hormuz is technically open, but the world’s oil lifeline is still hostage to fragile politics and lingering dangers.
