BNP today stands at the crossroads of volatility—held hostage by two parallel crises: the deteriorating health of its chairperson Khaleda Zia and the unresolved question of whether her son Tarique Rahman will return from London. One crisis feeds the other. Together, they have created a haze of speculation at a moment when the national election schedule is set to be announced.
Khaleda’s illness has become a moral, emotional and political test. A son is expected to rush to his mother’s bedside—more so when she is critically ill and fighting for life. Yet Tarique remained in London, unmoved by appeals, pressures and public expectation. His absence has fuelled whispers, doubts and conspiracy theories. The assumption is not of apathy, but of caution; that political and security calculations outweigh filial instinct. Still, for the public, explanations remain thin and unsatisfactory.
Meanwhile, the story of taking Khaleda abroad for treatment has evolved into a prolonged and perplexing spectacle. The much-talked-about air ambulance—reportedly arranged by the Emir of Qatar—slipped in and out of BNP’s narrative within a couple of days, first due to technical faults and later for reasons left unexplained.
Physicians reportedly reluctant to sign off on her transfer only intensified speculation about her true condition. Another aircraft was said to be arranged, and again there was silence. Time passed, uncertainty deepened, and the narrative grew more tangled.
Rumours, in the absence of transparency, have become currency. Many now question whether she is clinically alive or being politically preserved until a strategic moment. The BNP’s shifting statements have amplified distrust—not only about her condition but about the intentions surrounding it. The suspicion is no longer merely emotional—it is political.
This opacity is proving advantageous for others. Jamaat-e-Islami, recently distanced by Tarique’s own rhetoric of its historical role, now faces a situation that may benefit the once ally. As BNP falters under its own ambiguity, Jamaat is quietly regaining political room.
Against this backdrop, a new expectation is circulating inside BNP’s rank-and-file: that Tarique will return only after the election schedule is announced, expectedly on Thursday. The logic is calculated—he would arrive at a decisive moment, take command of the campaign, consolidate leadership and marshal the party in Khaleda’s absence. If the schedule acts as a trigger, Tarique’s homecoming becomes his entry point into frontline politics. Or so the hope goes.
But some say he will return only if his party wins the election and takes power.
His supporters speak of this future not loudly, but in guarded tones. In hushed conversations they map out an optimistic chain of events, describing it as if destiny itself were a checklist:
Khaleda survives long enough to stabilise the party’s emotional core, Election Commission announces schedule, Tarique finally returns to Dhaka, taking the reins with urgency, BNP enters the power race with renewed authority and then, one step further—the dream that Tarique becomes prime minister.
For that to happen, domestic politics, international pressure, party cohesion, voter sentiment, and Tarique’s own risk calculus—all must align for the dream to materialise. A neat equation in theory, but far less certain in reality.
Whether the theory works or not, Khaleda’s survival still matters, both symbolically and strategically. A living Khaleda affirms Tarique’s authority; an absent Khaleda forces a reckoning the party may not be prepared for. Even if she recovers, an active political role appears unlikely. Leadership, whether officially transferred or not, has effectively moved to her son.
If this delicate moment sparks a resurgence or triggers a rupture within BNP could matter more to the election than anything played out publicly.
