The Middle East conflict has entered a volatile phase, with China and Pakistan pushing a joint peace plan even as fighting between the United States, Israel and Iran intensifies and fractures Western unity.
More than a month after the US-Israeli campaign began on 28 February, there are no signs of de-escalation. Instead, the war is expanding geographically, disrupting energy markets and widening divisions among Washington’s traditional allies.
At the centre lies the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint carrying about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas. Iran’s disruption of shipping has amplified global economic shocks and added pressure on governments already battling inflation.
China, Pakistan push ceasefire plan
China and Pakistan have stepped forward with a five-point proposal calling for an immediate ceasefire and peace talks.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar unveiled the plan in Beijing, stressing sovereignty, civilian protection and the need to secure shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
The proposal also calls for a broader peace framework aligned with the United Nations Charter, with both countries urging restraint to prevent a wider regional war.
Trump ramps up pressure on allies
US President Donald Trump has escalated pressure on allies, criticising what he sees as limited support for military operations and maritime security.
In a post on Truth Social, he suggested countries facing jet fuel shortages should buy US energy or secure supplies independently.
“You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself,” he wrote, adding that countries unwilling to support US efforts should “go to the Strait and just take it”.
Analysts say the remarks signal a shift in US foreign policy and risk redefining long-standing alliances, particularly within NATO.
Trump has also warned Iran that its energy infrastructure would be “obliterated” if it fails to reopen shipping routes.
Europe distances itself
The conflict has exposed growing divisions within the Western alliance, with several European countries distancing themselves from US-Israeli operations.
Spain has barred US military aircraft linked to the conflict from its airspace, while Italy has reportedly denied access to key bases.
France has also restricted certain military overflights, according to diplomatic sources.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez criticised the campaign as reckless and called for diplomacy, while Trump accused European allies of being “unhelpful” and warned the US would “remember” their موقف.
Despite limited naval deployments, most European leaders are prioritising de-escalation over direct military involvement.
Pentagon warns of decisive phase
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the coming days would be critical.
Speaking after visiting US troops in the Middle East, he said Washington remains open to talks but is ready to intensify operations if Iran refuses to comply.
“We have more and more options, and they have less,” he said. “The upcoming days will be decisive.”
His remarks followed reports that Iran set ablaze an oil tanker off Dubai, part of a series of attacks on Gulf shipping.
Energy shock hits vulnerable economies
The conflict is increasingly hitting energy-dependent economies.
The Philippines has declared a national energy emergency, while Sri Lanka has cut its workweek to four days and introduced fuel rationing. Myanmar has restricted vehicle use, and Indonesia is expected to follow.
Oil prices have surged, with US crude crossing $100 per barrel and Brent reaching around $115, marking one of the sharpest monthly increases in decades.
Aluminium prices have also climbed to near four-year highs after airstrikes hit key production facilities in the Middle East.
Rising energy costs have pushed eurozone inflation above the European Central Bank’s target, raising concerns over a broader slowdown.
Iran signals wider retaliation
Iran has warned its response could extend beyond military targets.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it could target US companies operating in the Middle East from 1 April, naming firms such as Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, Tesla and Boeing.
The threat raises concerns the conflict could spill into the commercial and technological sphere.
Questions over US messaging
Even as tensions rise, questions are emerging over transparency in Washington.
Recent Pentagon briefings led by Pete Hegseth have reportedly been tightly controlled, with restricted access and managed questioning.
Journalists have cited heightened security and limited participation, raising concerns over the flow of information as the conflict escalates.
