Estimated energy revenues for Gulf nations have dropped by $15 billion since the start of hostilities, as the near-complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz leaves millions of barrels of oil and gas stranded.
According to data from the commodities analytics firm Kpler, the maritime route usually handles approximately $1.2 billion worth of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and refined products every day, based on 2025 figures, reports Financial Times.
However, traffic has effectively ended since the conflict intensified on 28 February, following attacks on vessels by Iran and a surge in insurance costs. This massive loss in revenue highlights the financial burden of the war for Gulf countries that rely heavily on energy sales to fund their national budgets.
Waterway traffic “negligible”
Florian Gruenberger of Kpler noted that current flows through the strait are “negligible” compared to levels seen before the war. Crude oil makes up the largest portion of the blocked cargo, representing 71 per cent of the total value.
As the world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia has suffered the most significant financial impact. Wood Mackenzie estimates the kingdom has missed out on $4.5 billion since the outbreak of war, though Riyadh is preparing to boost exports from the Red Sea shortly.
Regional exposure and buffers
Peter Martin, who serves as the head of economics at Wood Mackenzie, identified Iraq as one of the most vulnerable states, as oil production accounts for 90 per cent of its government revenue.
While Kuwait and Qatar also face high levels of exposure, Martin stated that both can utilise their vast sovereign wealth funds to cushion the immediate economic shock.
The impact of the trade disruption is expected to vary between different producers. Antoine Halff, a co-founder of the satellite analytics firm Kayrros, suggested that Saudi Arabia is likely in a better position to handle the disruption than Iraq, which is expected to incur more dramatic losses.
Strategic rerouting challenges
The state-backed firm Saudi Aramco has claimed it could divert roughly 70 per cent of crude exports from its eastern fields through its east-west pipeline to the Red Sea.
Nevertheless, industry analysts have expressed caution, noting that the pipeline network has never been tested at such a high level of capacity.
In total, Wood Mackenzie estimates that Gulf producers – including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain – have collectively deferred 13.3billion in tax and sales revenue from oil.
Meanwhile, Qatar Energy,the state−owned energy company of Qatar, had lost approximately 571 million in revenue by Wednesday after it halted production on 2 March. This figure does not include potential losses resulting from delays to new plants or planned expansion projects.
