Economists and business leaders have urged the newly elected government to move swiftly on inflation control, fiscal discipline, energy security and governance reform, warning that high public expectations and shrinking fiscal space leave little room for policy missteps.
Centre for Policy Dialogue Executive Director Fahmida Khatun said inflation has made life difficult for the middle class, lower middle class and the poor, while businesses are struggling with rising costs and weakening demand.
“Private sector investment is declining and jobs are not being created. Everyone cannot be absorbed into government service. Restoring the investment climate quickly is essential,” she said.
She warned that fiscal space has narrowed sharply as revenue collection weakens while expenditure commitments increase.
The annual cost of the new pay commission is about Tk1 lakh 6,000 crore. Manifesto pledges including family cards, higher allocations for education and health, and one crore youth jobs will require substantial funding.
Revenue-to-GDP ratio remains low.
Public expenditure suffers from waste, corruption and delays. Heavy government borrowing from banks is crowding out private credit. Investment has fallen to around 22.5 per cent of GDP in fiscal year 2025 from the long-stagnant 23 to 24 per cent range.
“With such low investment, growth will not accelerate. To reach a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, nearly 9 per cent annual growth will be required, driven by private and foreign investment,” she said.
She added that inflation has forced contractionary monetary policy, raising lending rates and increasing the cost of doing business. Port delays, infrastructure gaps, skills shortages and corruption are eroding competitiveness.
Banking reform must continue as non-performing loans remain high and the capital market is weak.
On least developed country graduation and the Bangladesh–United States trade agreement, she said both will add pressure. Tariff restructuring, trade reform and new free trade agreements will be necessary. Preparation must begin immediately.
Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Taskeen Ahmed called for a clear 100-day action plan built on law and order, energy security and private sector revival.
“Without stability, no economic initiative can function,” he said.
He warned against growth show-offs but said slowing growth amid job shortages and rising non-performing loans could create a vicious cycle.
“The first two years should prioritise fiscal discipline and accountability, followed by gradual recovery,” he said.
Business leaders said there had been scope to seek a three-year deferment of LDC graduation citing global dollar shortages and domestic instability, but that effort was not pursued.
Energy security emerged as a central concern in the economy, especially when BNP eyes a trillion dollar economy by 2034.
East Coast Group Chairman Azam J Chowdhury said the elected government should move quickly to utilise private and foreign investment to address the gas crisis.
A $3 billion investment proposal submitted jointly with ExxonMobil has moved through several ministries and awaits final clearance. Approving such projects without delay would help expand supply, he said.
“Domestic gas extraction must increase. Infrastructure expansion is unavoidable,” he said.
Bangladesh Textile Mills Association President Showkat Aziz Russell said Bangladesh’s trade volume stands at $114 billion with a $20 billion deficit.
“To move towards surplus, there is no alternative to industrialisation,” he said.
Foreign direct investment has remained at historic lows over the past five years. Investors require predictable policy commitments without sudden deviations, he said.
Cost competitiveness must be improved through better logistics, rational energy pricing, tax reform and financial sector stability.
“For example, shipping a container from Shanghai to New York costs about $900. From Bangladesh to New York it can reach $7,000 due to multiple inefficiencies and irrational costs,” he said.
He warned against meeting National Board of Revenue targets by repeatedly increasing corporate tax, duties and penalties instead of widening the tax net.
“The same cow cannot be slaughtered three times. Revenue must come from new industries, higher production and employment,” he said.
Echoing calls for administrative reform, he said applications should be approved or rejected within seven to ten days and policy decisions should not remain pending.
All speakers stressed governance reform, merit-based leadership, strong parliamentary oversight and transparency in public spending.
Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association President Mohammed Jahangir Alam said reducing the cost of doing business and financing in a sustainable manner and strengthening the capital market should be top priorities alongside fixing banking sector weaknesses.
Entrepreneurs added that decisive questions surrounding LDC graduation and the trade agreement with the United States should be reviewed through parliamentary debate to safeguard national interests.
The consensus across sectors was clear: controlling inflation, restoring energy supply, strengthening institutions and ensuring policy predictability will determine whether the new government can translate public expectations into sustainable growth and employment.
