Less than two months after taking office, the BNP government faces a tough test, with a fragile economy, rising opposition pressure over constitutional reforms and unchecked internal lobbying converging at once.
A shaky economy driven by the Middle East war, threats of street protests and growing demands from party ranks have combined to create a turbulent governing environment.
A suffocating strain is now visible across levels, from policymaking circles to the Secretariat bureaucracy.
Pressure on economy from fuel crisis
Since early March, the country’s fuel market has begun to feel the fallout of the Middle East conflict. Long queues have formed at petrol pumps, with reports of scuffles in some areas. Law enforcement has been deployed at filling stations to maintain order.
Rising global oil prices and instability in the Strait of Hormuz have made fuel procurement more difficult. The shortage is already affecting irrigation, as deep and shallow tube wells shut down, and could soon force several private sector power plants offline, raising fears of severe load-shedding.
The government has responded with austerity measures, including reducing office hours by one hour and cutting fuel allocations for the prime minister and senior officials.
A directive to close markets and shopping malls by 6pm has drawn mixed reactions from businesses, though authorities describe it as “inevitable”.
The prime minister has also held emergency talks with leading business figures and economists to assess the risks. Economists say the measures may offer short-term relief but stress the need to strengthen foreign exchange reserves and expand alternative energy sources for longer-term stability.
Threat of protests
At the same time, opposition parties are intensifying political pressure. Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and other parliamentary opposition groups, including the National Citizen Party (NCP), have taken a hard line over the July Charter and constitutional reform and have threatened street protests.
The BNP had backed most reform proposals before the 12 February election but has since stepped back, triggering a credibility gap over its earlier commitments.
This has left the government under pressure over how to respond if protests escalate, with concern growing among policymakers.
Endless lobbying
Alongside these challenges, internal pressure from party ranks is adding to the strain. Excessive lobbying by ruling party leaders, from grassroots to central levels, is reshaping the administrative environment.
Over the past two months, crowds of party leaders have become a common sight outside the offices of ministers and secretaries at the Secretariat.
Officials say they face intense pressure over recruitment, transfers, contract allocations and personal requests, disrupting routine administrative work.
Ministers are now juggling economic stress alongside demands from within their own party.
Senior officials warn that such trends could undermine administrative efficiency and weaken governance if political influence overtakes professional decision-making.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a minister said expectations have risen after BNP’s return to power following 17 years in opposition.
“Naturally, expectations among party leaders and activists have increased. Leaders at various levels, from the centre to the grassroots, are approaching ministries, party offices or the parliament secretariat for their needs. It is not correct to call this lobbying,” he said.
Challenges ahead
Professor Sabbir Ahmed, who teaches political science at Dhaka University, said the Middle East war is affecting not only Bangladesh but the global economy.
He said the government must plan fuel procurement based on the likely duration of the conflict and act against fuel syndicates.
He also said opposition protests during economic stress may be ill-timed, but the government still has scope to resolve the political crisis through dialogue.
“The government must quickly resolve the political crisis surrounding the July Charter,” he told TIMES of Bangladesh.
Professor Sabbir warned that rising political instability could trigger wider risks.
Political analysts say failure to curb lobbying and political interference in administration could lead to disorder in governance.
They say the government’s trajectory will depend on how effectively it manages these converging pressures in the months ahead.
