Bangladesh’s oil import bill could rise by about $4 billion, equivalent to 0.8 per cent of gross domestic product, under a sustained surge in global energy prices triggered by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a United Nations agency.
The estimate is based on a GDP base of more than $500 billion, translating the UN projection into nominal cost terms for Bangladesh.
In a report published on 2 June, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said crude oil prices have climbed more than 40 per cent and gasoline prices more than 50 per cent since military escalation in the Hormuz region on 28 February.
The agency estimated that a sustained 50 per cent increase in oil prices would add $16.1 billion annually to the import bill of least developed countries and a further $4.3 billion for small island developing states, taking the combined impact to $20.4 billion a year.
Bangladesh, classified as a least developed country, is among the economies affected, with UNCTAD estimating its additional import burden at 0.8 per cent of GDP. The country relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products, leaving limited insulation from global price swings.
The report said the shock is exposing structural vulnerabilities across 65 net oil-importing developing economies with a combined population of 983 million, more than 30 per cent of whom live below the extreme poverty line of $3 a day.
“When the Strait of Hormuz is strangled, the world’s poorest and most vulnerable cannot breathe,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement cited in the report.
UNCTAD said the price surge began on 28 February and remained elevated through 28 May. It added that Asia’s Singapore 95 RON gasoline benchmark, a key reference for Bangladesh’s fuel imports, has risen by more than 50 per cent over the period.
Bangladesh’s exposure is amplified by its reliance on imported refined petroleum products, which make up the bulk of its fuel import basket, leaving limited protection from swings in diesel, furnace oil, jet fuel and gasoline prices.
Across vulnerable economies, 97.8 per cent of oil imports by value consist of refined products, while crude accounts for only 2.2 per cent, according to UNCTAD data.
The report placed Bangladesh in the mid-range of exposure among comparable economies, higher than Nepal at 0.5 per cent of GDP but below Mauritania at 7.3 per cent and Gambia at 6.3 per cent.
UNCTAD warned that higher oil import bills could widen current account deficits, weaken currencies and tighten financial conditions, adding pressure on economies with limited fiscal space.
It also highlighted a policy dilemma for governments such as Bangladesh over whether to absorb rising energy costs to shield households or preserve fiscal space for essential services and development spending.
