India has spent billions of dollars expanding its metro rail systems, but many of the new lines are running far below expected capacity, raising concerns about demand forecasts, affordability and urban planning, reports The BBC.
On a weekday evening last month, a southbound Aqua Line train in Mumbai had largely emptied a few stops before its final destination. At the terminal, the station felt unusually quiet for a city known for intense commuter crowds, resembling a desolate structure rather than a busy transport hub.
The fully underground Aqua Line, opened last year, connects the old business district of Cuffe Parade to newer commercial centres such as Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) and the airport terminals in the northern suburbs. The 33.5km corridor was expected to ease congestion in India’s financial capital and carry nearly 1.5 million passengers daily. Estimates suggest actual ridership is about a tenth of that.
A ticketing executive at Cuffe Parade station said the line was underused because it is “too expensive”.
The shortfall reflects a wider pattern across India’s rapidly expanding metro network. Since 2014, the Narendra Modi government has invested more than $26 billion in metro infrastructure across nearly two dozen cities. The network has grown fourfold, from under 300km to more than 1,000km by 2025. Average daily ridership has also nearly quadrupled over the past decade, from around three million to more than 11 million.
However, these aggregate figures obscure persistent gaps between projected and actual usage. A 2023 report by the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi found that many corridors achieved only 25-35 per cent of projected ridership. One of the study’s authors said those figures were unlikely to have changed significantly in 2024 and 2025.
Other research shows similar trends. The Observer Research Foundation (ORF) reported ridership as low as 2 per cent of projections in Kanpur, while Chennai reached about 37 per cent in its first phase. Data from the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) indicated actual usage between 20 per cent and 50 per cent in cities such as Pune and Nagpur.
Delhi is the only major exception, where ridership has slightly exceeded projections. However, transport experts Aditya Rane of ITDP and Ashish Verma of the Sustainable Transportation Lab at the Indian Institute of Science said this is partly because interchanges are counted as separate trips.
Experts say several factors are behind the shortfall, beginning with overly optimistic demand projections. Verma said forecasting is complex and figures are sometimes exaggerated to demonstrate economic viability. Projections are often based on “offered capacity”, including planned train frequency and coach numbers, which are not always achieved in practice.
In Bengaluru, for example, peak-hour frequency on the busiest line is five minutes or more, while newer lines run at intervals of up to 25 minutes. Train lengths are often limited to three to six coaches, compared with up to nine coaches and far higher frequency in some of the world’s busiest systems.
Affordability is another constraint. A single journey on the Aqua Line costs between 10 and 70 rupees, while a three-month unlimited pass on Mumbai’s suburban railway costs 590 rupees. Rane said integrated journey costs in Indian metro systems can consume up to 20 per cent of income for lower-income workers, exceeding the global benchmark of 10-15 per cent.
Verma added that efforts to reduce subsidies may not be appropriate in a price-sensitive market. In Bengaluru, ridership fell by about 13 per cent after a fare increase last year, according to Greenpeace data. He noted that even London’s Tube remains heavily subsidised despite being among the world’s most expensive public transport systems.
Infrastructure and planning gaps also limit usage. Poor last-mile connectivity, including a shortage of feeder buses, makes access difficult. Transit times between lines can be long, with transfers at Delhi’s Hauz Khas station taking 15-20 minutes.
Dawda attributed part of the problem to “institutional disaggregation”, with different agencies managing metro lines and bus networks in isolation. He said better operational integration is needed.
Access to stations is another challenge. Verma pointed to inadequate walkways and difficulties for travellers moving luggage even over short distances. Safety concerns also deter users, particularly women.
For north Delhi resident Chetna Yadav, safety and accessibility are key issues. She said travelling home after sunset is difficult, as the nearest station is about 15km away and transport options are limited late at night.
Despite these challenges, experts expect metro use to grow gradually. Rising traffic congestion, pollution, parking shortages and road safety concerns are increasing pressure on cities to expand public transport.
However, without more affordable fares, better integration and improved access, a rapid surge in ridership is unlikely. Rane said systems that prioritise bus integration, station access and fare coordination are more likely to improve, while others may continue to underperform relative to their original projections.
