In the 13th parliamentary election, candidates of the Jamaat-led alliance are leading in most of the 36 seats in the south-western Khulna division, according to a TIMES of Bangladesh assessment based on local voter sentiment and political analysis.
Across the division, the Jamaat bloc is ahead in 18 seats, while the BNP alliance is leading in 12. Five constituencies are shaping up as tight contests. A BNP rebel candidate is currently ahead in one seat, with the possibility of more such breakthroughs.
The picture, however, remains fluid. Significant shifts are still possible in six to seven seats in the final stretch of campaigning. In several constituencies, vote-splitting between BNP’s nominated and rebel candidates could work in Jamaat’s favour.
In others, BNP could still narrow the gap or gain ground if activists mobilise decisively behind either the party nominee or a strong rebel contender.
There is also growing speculation that Awami League voters could influence outcomes in a number of seats at the last moment, adding another layer of uncertainty to the contests.
Senior Jamaat leaders believe their alliance is poised to deliver a major surprise in Khulna division. Jamaat central executive council member Mobarak Hossain, who oversees most districts in the region, told TIMES that he is responsible for seven of Khulna division’s ten districts, covering 22 seats, and expects to win the majority of them.
Repeated attempts to contact Khulna divisional BNP Assistant Organising Secretary Jayanta Kumar Kundu and several other BNP leaders for comments were unsuccessful.
However, a BNP central executive committee assistant secretary, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Jamaat was benefiting from what he described as biased nominations within BNP. He claimed that candidates lacking local popularity had been nominated in 14 seats, creating openings for Jamaat.
Khulna
Khulna-1: BNP candidate Amir Ejaz Khan is contesting against Jamaat alliance candidate Krishna Nandi. Although Khan lacks strong popularity, he is ahead as his rival is also weak.
Khulna-2: Former BNP divisional organising secretary Nazrul Islam Manju, despite recent inactivity, remains highly popular and is ahead of Jamaat candidate Sheikh Jahangir Hossain Helal.
Khulna-3: BNP central student affairs secretary Rakibul Islam Bokul is ahead against Jamaat’s Mahfuzur Rahman.
Khulna-4: BNP central leader Azizul Bari Helal is well ahead of Jamaat alliance candidate Sakhawat Hossain of Khelafat Majlis.
Khulna-5: Jamaat Secretary General Mia Golam Porwar is ahead against former BNP MP Ali Asgar Lobi, having built support through sustained outreach to Hindu voters.
Khulna-6: Jamaat candidate Abul Kalam Azad is reported to be ahead against BNP’s Monirul Hasan Bappi.
Bagerhat
Bagerhat-1 (Fakirhat–Mollahat–Chitalmari): A close contest is expected between Jamaat’s Mashiur Rahman Khan and independent MAH Selim, as BNP support has largely shifted to the rebel candidate.
Bagerhat-2 (Kachua–Bagerhat): Jamaat’s Manjurul Haque Rahat is ahead of BNP’s Sheikh Zakir Hossain.
Bagerhat-3 (Rampal–Mongla): BNP candidate Sheikh Faridul Islam holds a narrow lead over Jamaat alliance candidate Sheikh Abdul Wadud.
Bagerhat-4 (Morrelganj–Sharankhola): Jamaat’s Principal Abdul Alim is ahead of BNP’s Somnath Dey, a former Awami League leader new to BNP.
Satkhira
Satkhira-1 (Tala–Kalaroa): A tight race is expected between BNP’s former MP Habibul Islam Habib and Jamaat’s Md Izzatullah.
Satkhira-2 (Sadar–Debhata): Jamaat’s Muhaddis Abdul Khalek is well ahead of BNP nominee Abdur Rauf.
Satkhira-3 (Assasuni–Kaliganj): Vote-splitting between BNP nominee Kazi Alauddin and rebel Dr Shahidul Alam has put Jamaat’s Rabiul Bashar ahead.
Satkhira-4: Jamaat’s former MP GM Nazrul Islam is leading against BNP’s Dr Muhammad Moniruzzaman.
Jashore
Jashore-1: Jamaat’s Azizur Rahman is ahead of BNP’s Md Nuruzzaman Liton.
Jashore-2: Jamaat’s Dr Mohammad Moslehuddin Farid holds a slim lead over BNP’s Sabira Sultana amid organisational inactivity.
Jashore-3: BNP’s Anindya Islam Amit is ahead against Jamaat’s VP Abdul Qader.
Jashore-4: Jamaat’s Golam Rasul is contesting against BNP’s Matiar Rahman Farazi following candidate changes that weakened BNP.
Jashore-5: Jamaat’s Gazi Enamul Haque is ahead due to BNP vote-splitting between nominee Rashid Ahmad and independent Iqbal Hossain. Rashid is said to be a very unknown face in the area and remains the least discussed among voters.
Jashore-6: Jamaat’s Moktar Ali is ahead against BNP’s Abul Hossain Azad amid internal discontent.
Chuadanga
Chuadanga-1: A close contest is expected between BNP’s Sharifuzzaman Sharif and Jamaat’s Masud Parvez Russell.
Chuadanga-2: Jamaat’s Ruhul Amin is ahead of BNP’s Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, who has limited local presence.
Narail
Narail-1: BNP’s Biswas Jahangir Alam is ahead but faces pressure from three rebel candidates, benefiting Jamaat’s Obaidullah Kaiser.
Narail-2: Jamaat’s Ataur Rahman Bacchu is ahead due to BNP vote-splitting.
Magura
Magura-1: BNP’s Manwar Hossain Khan is comfortably ahead of Jamaat’s Abdul Matin.
Magura-2: A tight contest between BNP heavyweight Nitai Roy Chowdhury and Jamaat’s Mushtarshed Billah Bakar, with the Islamic Movement vote bank likely to be decisive.
Kushtia
Kushtia-1: BNP’s Reza Ahmed Bacchu Mollah is ahead of Jamaat’s Md Belal Uddin.
Kushtia-2: Jamaat’s Abdul Gafur holds a slight lead over BNP’s Barrister Ragib Rauf Chowdhury.
Kushtia-3: BNP’s Zakir Hossain Sarkar is ahead against Jamaat’s Amir Hamza.
Kushtia-4: Jamaat’s Afzal Hossain is ahead of BNP’s Syed Mehdi Ahmed Rumi.
Jhenaidah
Jhenaidah-1: BNP’s former attorney general Md Asaduzzaman is ahead of Jamaat’s Abu Saleh Md Matiur Rahman.
Jhenaidah-2: The race remains evenly balanced between BNP and Jamaat.
Jhenaidah-3: Jamaat’s Md Matiar Rahman is ahead of BNP’s Mehdi Hasan Rony.
Jhenaidah-4: Independent Md Saiful Islam Firoz is leading, though Jamaat’s Abu Talib could gain if BNP votes split further.
Meherpur
Meherpur-1: A close contest between BNP’s Masud Arun and Jamaat’s Tajuddin Khan, with Arun slightly ahead.
Meherpur-2 (Gangni): Jamaat’s Md Nazmul Huda is ahead of BNP’s Md Amjad Hossain Hossain, with turnout and last-minute strategy expected to prove decisive.
