Following the successful “snatch-and-grab” operation to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the start of a week-old Iran war, US President Donald Trump has identified Cuba as next target for regime change.
In an interview with CNN, Trump said his belief that the communist government, which has led the Caribbean island since 1959, is nearing collapse. The president suggested that after nearly seven decades of resistance, the nation is now “ready” for change.
To facilitate this transition, he expressed his intention to send Secretary of State Marco Rubio to negotiate and said, “They want to make a deal, and so I’m going to put Marco over there, and we’ll see how that works out.”
The ‘Maduro Model’
A cornerstone of the administration’s plan involves a legalistic approach that mirrors the strategy used against the Venezuelan leadership. The US Justice Department has formed a specialised working group, including officials from the Treasury Department, to examine potential federal charges against Cuban government officials and entities.
This group is investigating crimes related to immigration, economics, and other matters. Jason Reding Quiñones, who heads the US Attorney’s Office in the Southern District of Florida, is overseeing the prosecution effort.
The formation of this group is seen as a significant step in the public push to topple the regime, potentially leading to further intense economic sanctions.
Recent hostilities and historical grievances
The push for indictments has been accelerated by recent events and a desire to address historical grievances. Quiñones is currently investigating an incident where Cuban soldiers allegedly opened fire on a Florida-registered speedboat, killing five passengers, including a US citizen.
While Cuban officials claim they were defending against “terrorists” who fired first, Quiñones has expressed scepticism, saying, “The facts remain unclear and conflicting.”
Simultaneously, republican members of Florida’s congressional delegation are urging Attorney General Pam Bondi to reopen an investigation into the 1996 shooting down of two unarmed civilian planes operated by the group Brothers to the Rescue.
These lawmakers are specifically seeking an indictment against former president Raúl Castro. In a letter they said, “We believe unequivocally that Raul Castro is responsible for this heinous crime.”
Economic strangulation and the energy crisis
The Trump administration is leveraging a severe energy shortage to push the Cuban government into an “existential corner”. This crisis was largely precipitated by the US seizure of Venezuela’s oil industry in January, which cut off a supply that previously met a third of Cuba’s daily requirements.
Moreover, Trump issued an executive order threatening tariffs on any nation, specifically targeting Mexico, that provides oil to the island. This blockade has resulted in a deepening humanitarian crisis, characterised by extended power outages and acute food shortages.
Trump told US media that he expects the government to collapse under this economic weight, stating, “I think it’s just going to fall. I don’t think we need any action. Looks like it’s going down. It’s going down for the count.”
Military disparity and civilian concerns
Though Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has ordered an increase in military exercises following the fall of Maduro, the island’s defensive capabilities are limited. Hal Klepak, professor emeritus at the Royal Military College of Canada, said that most Cuban military equipment is obsolete and hails from the Soviet era.
Despite the disparity in military power, the prospect of conflict remains a divisive issue among the nine million people on the island and the millions in exile.
While many are eager for the removal of a government that suppresses free speech and jails opponents, others fear that an actual military conflict would result in significant civilian casualties.
For the time being, the US administration appears focused on ensuring the regime falls through economic pressure and legal indictments rather than direct military engagement.
