The ongoing four-month conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has catalysed a period of profound global economic upheaval, marked by soaring energy prices and significant disruptions to international trade routes.
However, while this volatility has placed immense pressure on global consumers and businesses, a distinct group of industries has emerged as the primary beneficiaries of the instability.
From the boardrooms of the world’s largest defence contractors to the high-frequency trading floors of Wall Street, the hostilities have underpinned a surge in profitability for the energy, military-industrial, shipping, and financial sectors.
As market uncertainty continues to upend global trade, the Al Jazeera analysis examines the specific corporate giants and financial mechanisms that have capitalised most effectively on the escalating tensions in the Gulf.
Energy majors capitalise on market volatility
The energy sector has seen the most direct financial gains from the hostilities. Prior to the conflict, approximately 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) was transported through the Strait of Hormuz.
Disruptions to this vital narrow waterway caused Brent crude prices to peak at $126 per barrel, a four-year high, before stabilising near pre-war levels of roughly $72.
Major oil producers leveraged these price fluctuations to secure significant cash flow windfalls.
Saudi Aramco reported a 25 per cent increase in first-quarter profits, reaching $32.5 billion, largely by utilising its 1,200km East-West pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and maintain exports of seven million barrels per day.
British Petroleum (BP) also exceeded market expectations, reporting profits of $3.2 billion, more than double its previous year’s figures.
Despite operational challenges, other firms remained resilient. Shell reported profits of $6.9 billion even as its co-owned Pearl GTL plant in Qatar sustained severe damage following regional strikes. Similarly, TotalEnergies recorded an adjusted net income of $5.4 billion despite a 15 per cent reduction in global production, aided by routing exports through the Fujairah Terminal in the United Arab Emirates.
Analysts suggest US LNG firms such as Venture Global and Cheniere Energy are also well-positioned as buyers seek more secure supplies.
A ‘prolonged boom’ for defence contractors
The conflict has also significantly bolstered the arms industry. In late February, executives from major firms including RTX, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and BAE Systems met at the White House to coordinate the replenishment of dwindling US munitions stockpiles.
This surge in demand coincides with a $500 billion increase in US defence funding approved by President Donald Trump, followed by an additional $200 billion request from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
Hegseth justified the expenditure to reporters, stating: “It takes money to kill bad guys.”
Consequently, Northrop Grumman’s order backlog has reached a record $95.6 billion. While Boeing remains loss-making, it narrowed its net loss to $7m as revenue climbed 14 per cent to $22.2 billion.
Experts note that this conflict reinforces a lucrative model where a small group of private firms—Lockheed Martin, RTX, Boeing, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman—capture roughly one-third of the trillions of dollars awarded in Pentagon contracts.
Surging costs in shipping and insurance
The maritime industry has seen freight rates reach historic highs as the conflict effectively removed 7 per cent of the global tanker fleet from circulation due to longer voyages and bottlenecks.
On the benchmark route from the Middle East Gulf to East Asia, rates jumped from 100 to over 500 Worldscale points.
Specialist tanker operators such as Frontline and DHT Holdings have seen earnings rise in tandem with these rates, with DHT securing over $100,000 a day for certain vessels. Marine insurers have similarly profited, with war-risk premiums for the Strait of Hormuz surging fivefold.
For a tanker valued at $100m, a single voyage can now cost up to $1.5m to insure. Professor Constantin Gurdgiev of the Monfort College of Business suggests that unless civilian vessel losses increase dramatically, insurers will continue to see high short-term profitability.
Wall Street windfalls and prediction market scandals
The volatility triggered by the war has proven lucrative for Wall Street’s largest institutions. Collectively, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo earned nearly $48 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
JPMorgan alone reported a 13 per cent profit increase to $16.5 billion, driven largely by high-performing trading desks specialising in fixed income, currencies, and commodities.
However, the conflict has also brought intense scrutiny to prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Suspiciously timed trades were observed on March 23, where $580m in oil futures flooded the market just 16 minutes before US President Trump announced a pause in strikes.
A Yale University analysis of over 200,000 flagged cases found that certain newly created accounts – some allegedly linked to the Trump family – maintained a 70 per cent hit rate, an outcome researchers claim is statistically impossible without prior insider knowledge.
Total estimated profits from these suspicious trades reached $143m.
