As the parliamentary election nears and parties step up campaigning, top leaders from the main rivals BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami face uncertain electoral prospects, according to field-level assessments.
The assessments suggest that Jamaat Ameer Shafiqur Rahman, its Secretary General Mia Golam Parwar, and BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir are at risk of defeat.
BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman – though not facing an immediate threat to victory – could encounter stiff competition in one of the two constituencies he is contesting in the 12 February election.
Field reports indicate that Tarique is expected to secure an easy win in Bogura-6 but may face a strong challenge from the Jamaat-backed candidate in Dhaka-17.
Among the leaders deemed most at risk, the Jamaat chief appears to be in the most precarious position.
He has contested parliamentary elections four times in the past without securing a victory, standing twice in Sylhet-1 and once each in Moulvibazar-2 and Dhaka-15.
Shafiqur contested the Dhaka-15 constituency in 2018 as a candidate of the BNP–Jamaat alliance, but the result of that election offers little basis for assessing Jamaat’s actual vote strength in the area because of the widely criticised “night-time voting” that year.
Overall, Jamaat’s electoral support in the capital has historically been limited. In the 1991 parliamentary election, the party secured its highest-ever vote share in a Dhaka constituency when its then acting ameer, Abbas Ali Khan, won 9.3% of the vote in one seat. In other constituencies across the capital, Jamaat candidates received an average of around 4%. The party’s vote share in Dhaka declined further in the 1996 election.
Shafiqur Rahman is again contesting Dhaka-15, which includes the Kafrul area of Mirpur. While Jamaat’s vote share in the capital has increased over the past three decades, the extent of that growth remains unclear. Election analysts say the party’s support in the constituency is unlikely to exceed 20%.
For the upcoming election, Jamaat’s main campaign strategy centres on allegations of extortion and land grabbing against BNP. Analysts believe this narrative could help the party increase its vote share, but not enough to secure a victory.
Instead, they say the BNP candidate is likely to benefit primarily from the party’s electoral symbol, the Sheaf of Paddy. A similar pattern was seen in 1991, when a relatively lesser-known BNP candidate defeated Dr Kamal Hossain who competed for Awami League in the same constituency.
The BNP candidate this time is also regarded as relatively little-known, but analysts say the party symbol alone could give him a decisive edge. As a result, they argue, Shafiqur could face a similar fate to Kamal Hossain’s defeat more than three decades ago.
Jamaat Secretary General Mia Golam Parwar is contesting the Khulna-5 constituency, which comprises Phultala and Dumuria upazilas.
Although Jamaat’s overall vote share in minority-dominated Khulna has traditionally been low, Parwar enjoys comparatively stronger support in this seat. Even so, analysts say his support base falls short of what would be required for a clear victory.
In the 1991 parliamentary election, he secured 18% of the vote in Khulna-5. In the following election in 1996, however, he contested Khulna-3, where he bagged just 6.6% of the vote, while the Jamaat candidate in Khulna-5 that year received only 9.4%. BNP also did not command an overwhelming base in the constituency at the time, winning around 27% of the vote when it contested alone in 1996.
Golam Parwar returned to Khulna-5 in 2001 as a candidate of the BNP–Jamaat alliance and won the seat, buoyed by the combined votes of the two parties, alongside support from Jatiya Party. Historically, Awami League’s core vote in the constituency has consistently exceeded 40%.
With Awami League absent from the upcoming election, Jamaat’s main rival in Khulna-5 is BNP. While Jamaat’s vote share in the constituency has increased over the past three decades, analysts say Golam Parwar faces a tough challenge from BNP heavyweight Ali Asghar Lobi.
BNP appears largely united behind Lobi, with no significant rebel candidate in the race, giving him a clear organisational advantage. Analysts also say he has been more successful than his rival in attracting Hindu voters in the constituency.
Taken together, these factors place Parwar in a vulnerable position in what is shaping up to be a closely fought contest.
Meanwhile, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir is also facing an uneasy contest as he runs in the Thakurgaon-1 constituency.
In terms of core vote share, BNP remains slightly ahead of Jamaat in the seat, but this time Fakhrul is grappling with discontent within his own party ranks.
Local BNP leaders and activists have expressed resentment over what they describe as the preferential placement of family members in district, upazila and union-level party committees following his elevation to secretary general. As a result, grassroots activists who feel sidelined have grown increasingly frustrated.
Field reports suggest that while these disgruntled party workers have not openly rebelled, many have remained largely inactive during the campaign. Several local analysts believe that votes from this silent segment of BNP supporters could shift towards the scales symbol, eroding the party’s base in the constituency.
Sensing the risk, Fakhrul has reportedly been seeking to mobilise Awami League voters in the area. Analysts say that if AL supporters, particularly Hindu voters, turn out in significant numbers, their votes are likely to go overwhelmingly in his favour.
In effect, they argue, crossing the electoral threshold in Thakurgaon-1 may depend on support from voters traditionally aligned with the boat symbol. Without that backing, Fakhrul himself could face the risk of defeat.
Among the top leaders from the two parties, the most secure position appears to belong to Tarique Rahman, who is widely expected to enter parliament and, should his party come to power, emerge as the next prime minister.
Tarique’s victory in Bogura-6 is considered certain, with the only question being the margin by which he will win.
By contrast, calculations surrounding Dhaka-17 have drawn closer scrutiny. The constituency includes affluent neighbourhoods such as Gulshan, Banani and the Cantonment, alongside densely populated informal settlements like Korail and Bhashantek, where voter numbers are significant. The Jamaat candidate has been working consistently in these areas for more than a year.
Analysts note that voter turnout among affluent residents of Gulshan, Banani and the Cantonment tends to be relatively low. With a three-day public holiday surrounding polling day, many BNP-leaning voters from these neighbourhoods may choose to travel away from the capital, potentially reducing the party’s vote share.
By contrast, Jamaat supporters in the same affluent areas are expected to turn out in large numbers. Taken together, these dynamics suggest that Tarique could face a strong challenge from the Jamaat candidate in Dhaka-17.
Field-level assessments, however, indicate that Tarique is still more likely to secure victory in the constituency, although analysts caution that the winning margin could be significantly narrower than in Bogura-6.
