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US Congress confronts Israel nuclear ambiguity

US Congress confronts Israel nuclear ambiguity
US Capitol building on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. Photo: Collected
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A group of 30 Democratic lawmakers in the United States Congress has urged the State Department to disclose more information about Israel’s nuclear capabilities, arguing that decades of official ambiguity are undermining non-proliferation efforts and increasing risks during the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran.

In a 4 May letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the lawmakers said Congress needed clear information about the nuclear balance in the Middle East, particularly as Washington says preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons remains a central objective of the war, reports Al Jazeera.

“Congress has a constitutional responsibility to be fully informed about the nuclear balance in the Middle East, the risk of escalation by any party to this conflict, and the administration’s planning and contingencies for such scenarios,” the lawmakers wrote.

“We do not believe we have received that information,” the letter added.

Israel is widely believed to have possessed nuclear weapons since the 1960s, although it has never officially confirmed their existence under a longstanding policy of deliberate ambiguity.

The Nuclear Threat Initiative, a Washington-based research organisation, says Israel maintains “a policy of nuclear opacity, never officially confirming the existence of its nuclear weapons program and arsenal”.

The US government has largely maintained the same position publicly despite occasional acknowledgements from officials over the years.

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The lawmakers argued that the lack of transparency complicates broader regional non-proliferation efforts involving Iran, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern states.

“A policy of official ambiguity about the nuclear capabilities of one party to this conflict makes coherent non-proliferation policy in the Middle East impossible,” the letter said.

The Democrats requested detailed information about Israel’s nuclear arsenal, including warheads, launch systems, enrichment capabilities and plutonium production.

Particular attention was given to the Negev Nuclear Research Centre in Dimona, long regarded as the centre of Israel’s nuclear programme.

The lawmakers also asked whether Israel had shared with Washington any “nuclear doctrine, red lines, or thresholds for nuclear use in the context of the current conflict with Iran”.

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They further questioned whether the US administration had received assurances from Israel that nuclear weapons would not be used and whether there were indications of plans to deploy such weapons during recent hostilities.

Israel is not a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Information about Israel’s nuclear capabilities has emerged gradually through former officials, intelligence disclosures and whistleblowers.

US intelligence documents declassified over time indicate that the CIA informed President Lyndon B Johnson in 1968 that Israel had either developed or was capable of developing a nuclear weapon.

Reports have also said President Richard Nixon later reached an understanding with Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir under which Israel would avoid publicly acknowledging or testing nuclear weapons while Washington eased pressure for inspections and oversight.

Former Israeli nuclear technician Mordechai Vanunu later leaked details about the Dimona facility to Britain’s Sunday Times in a report that drew international attention to Israel’s alleged nuclear programme.

In their letter, the lawmakers said the “public record strongly and consistently supports the conclusion that Israel possesses nuclear weapons”.

They cited a 1974 US Special National Intelligence Estimate as well as comments from American and Israeli officials.

Among the references was testimony from former US defence secretary nominee Robert Gates, who told the Senate Armed Services Committee in 2006 that Israel was among the world’s “powers with nuclear weapons”.

The Nuclear Threat Initiative estimates Israel possesses around 90 nuclear warheads, alongside a plutonium stockpile of between 750 and 1,110 kg.

The organisation also estimates Israel has six submarines capable of launching nuclear weapons and intermediate-range ballistic missiles with ranges of 4,800 to 6,500 km.

Public congressional pressure over Israel’s nuclear capability has historically been rare, although individual lawmakers have occasionally raised the issue.

Representative James McGovern referred to Israel as a nuclear-armed state in a 2019 resolution.

The latest letter comes amid growing criticism among some Democrats over Washington’s support for Israel during the Gaza war and the conflict involving Iran.

In April, 40 Democratic senators backed a failed measure seeking to block the sale of military bulldozers to Israel, a move supporters described as historically significant pressure within the party.

Josh Reubner, policy director at the Institute for Middle East Understanding Policy Project, said lawmakers were justified in questioning differing US approaches towards Israel and Iran.

“Members of Congress are right to question why Israel’s development of nuclear weapons gets a free pass while we’re trying to prevent Iran from acquiring them,” he told Al Jazeera.

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