US President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has plummeted to a second-term low of 37 per cent, driven by deep public dissatisfaction with an unpopular war in Iran and a rapidly darkening economic outlook.
According to the latest New York Times/Siena poll, the Republican Party is facing significant political instability as the electorate increasingly questions the President’s leadership ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.
The survey of 1,507 registered voters nationwide, conducted between 11 and 15 May, reveals a nation increasingly pessimistic about its trajectory.
The share of voters who believe the country is on the “right track” has fallen to just 32 per cent, a decline fueled largely by a 12-point drop in confidence amongst Republicans since January.
A deeply unpopular conflict
At the heart of the US President’s political decline is the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East. Nearly two-thirds of voters – 64 per cent – believe that Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran was the “wrong decision”.
Amongst the politically vital independent voters, this figure rises to 73 per cent. Overall, less than a quarter of the electorate believes the conflict has been worth the associated costs.
While 70 per cent of Republicans still favour the resumption of military operations if a nuclear deal is not reached, the broader public has little appetite for continued fighting. A majority of 52 per cent say military action should not resume if a deal cannot be brokered soon to end Iran’s nuclear programme.
Additionally, 63 per cent of voters – including 27 per cent of Republicans – insist that the President should not be able to use military force without explicit congressional approval.
Economic anxiety and the cost of living
The political fallout from the war is inextricably linked to a worsening domestic economy. Since the bombing of Iran began in late February, petrol prices have surged, with the average cost of a gallon of fuel exceeding $4.50.
Public disapproval of Trump’s handling of their economy has reached 64 per cent, a stark reversal for an issue that was previously a cornerstone of his political strength.
Voter ratings of economic conditions have hit a nadir; 49 per cent now describe the economy as “poor,” an 11-percentage-point jump since the start of the year.
Only 4 per cent of respondents rate the economy as “excellent”. Dissatisfaction is particularly acute regarding the cost of living, with 69 per cent of voters disapproving of the administration’s management of rising prices.
Despite these pressures, Trump has remained publicly indifferent to the financial strain on households.
During the polling period, he told reporters that the financial situation of Americans did not motivate him “even a little bit” to terminate the conflict. “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation,” he stated.
Midterm liabilities and the independent shift
The administration’s policies appear to be alienating a growing segment of the population. Forty-four per cent of voters now say Trump’s policies have “hurt them personally,” an increase from 36 per cent last autumn.
Independent voters are notably unhappier; 69 per cent now disapprove of Trump’s performance.
In a hypothetical midterm matchup, Democrats currently hold a 10-point lead, with 50 per cent of registered voters backing the Democratic candidate compared to 39 per cent for the Republican.
Amongst independents, the Democratic edge is 18 points. However, Democratic Party has yet to fully capitalise; only 26 per cent of voters expressed satisfaction with the Democratic brand.
Matthew Berryhill, a progressive recruiter from Georgia, voiced a common frustration: “They come out with strong statements… and no action to back it up”.
On the other hand, Republican leaders maintain a structural advantage in the House of Representatives, having redrawn congressional maps to net an edge of six to 10 favourable districts.
