The United Nations weather agency on Tuesday forecast a moderate or possibly strong El Niño that could raise global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather in the coming months.
El Niño is a recurring warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It typically lasts nine to 12 months, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Reuters reported that the WMO said warm ocean waters are driving the development of El Niño. It added that most parts of the world are likely to experience above-average temperatures from June to August. The agency also said El Niño is expected to continue until November.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said preparations were needed for a potentially strong El Niño event. She said it could worsen drought and heavy rainfall and raise the risk of heatwaves on land and in the ocean.
She added that the most recent El Niño in 2023-24 contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record.
The WMO said a shift has been observed in the Equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly from late April to mid-May, indicating developing El Niño conditions. It also reported unusually warm subsurface waters across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures more than 6 degrees Celsius above average, forming a heat reservoir that is driving surface warming.
The weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates. It can bring heavier rainfall to southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia. It can also trigger drought in Australia, Central America, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia. The WMO said it can further warm the global climate and fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that El Niño conditions would intensify climate impacts. He said the world must treat it as an urgent climate warning and called for a shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy.
The WMO said there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events. However, it said climate change can worsen associated impacts such as extreme heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
