Forecasters warn that a potentially “super” El Niño is rapidly developing in the Pacific, though whether it evolves into a record-breaking event depends on unpredictable winds and atmospheric shifts.
The tropical Pacific is warming fast, indicating a major El Niño, but a crucial weakening of trade winds—which can either accelerate or limit the phenomenon—has yet to occur. Scientists emphasise that these interactions are highly complex, making it too early to predict the event’s full intensity.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 80 per cent chance of El Niño forming by July. Sea temperatures in key equatorial Pacific zones are climbing, with a vast pool of unusually warm water accumulating beneath the surface. Some agencies forecast temperatures could rise 2.5C or more above average, exceptionally high for the region.
Historically, only three events—1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16—have exceeded 2C since the first modern El Niño in 1877/78. Veteran UK Met Office forecaster Adam Scaife said the current El Niño could be the strongest in decades or “even of record strength”.
NOAA notes there is roughly a one-in-three chance the phenomenon could exceed 2C, entering so-called “super El Niño” territory. However, key factors, particularly low-level trade winds, remain uncertain. Any unexpected strengthening of these winds could pause or reverse the event’s growth, NOAA warned.
El Niño typically peaks around December, but ocean heat continues to release slowly, potentially pushing global temperatures higher into the following years. Major El Niño events have preceded several record-hot years, including 1998, 2010, 2016, 2023, and 2024. Scaife warned that 2027 could see “a new record level of global warmth” if an extreme event develops this year.
While it remains unclear how climate change influences El Niño intensity, even a weaker episode now occurs in a hotter, more moisture-laden world. This could amplify impacts on rainfall, droughts, and global temperatures, regardless of the event’s inherent strength.
Each El Niño differs, but typical effects include drought in the Amazon, Indonesia, and Australia, disrupted Indian monsoons, and shifting rainfall across the tropics. Climatologists caution that historical patterns may be less reliable today due to climate-driven ocean warming.
Adjusted forecasting methods, accounting for background warming, are improving accuracy, but uncertainties remain. Australia predicts the event could reach 2.8C, raising the possibility of a historic El Niño.
