Republicans are reshaping their strategy for November’s midterm elections as rising petrol prices, declining approval ratings for President Donald Trump and a protracted conflict with Iran complicate their campaign outlook, reports Reuters.
Party leaders and strategists now aim to capitalise on Trump’s ability to mobilise conservative voters while shifting emphasis towards local issues and economic messaging, seeking to avoid turning the elections into a referendum on a president whose political standing appears to be weakening.
At a closed-door meeting this week in Washington, Trump’s senior political advisers laid out the revised approach to leading conservative campaign officials, according to four people familiar with the discussions. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, political chief James Blair and longtime pollster Tony Fabrizio were among those present, outlining plans for candidates to highlight Republican tax cuts and policies aimed at tackling inflation.
The strategy marks a departure from earlier thinking that centred on placing Trump at the forefront of the midterm campaign. Republican operatives now fear that his declining popularity could harm candidates in closely contested congressional races, particularly as the party faces a difficult path to retain its majority in the House of Representatives and an increasing risk of losing control of the Senate.
Concerns are growing within Republican circles that Trump’s political influence may be waning at a critical moment, according to several party insiders who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
The president is also dealing with a prolonged standoff with Iran. After two months of conflict, both military and diplomatic efforts have failed to achieve key objectives, including curbing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The impasse has contributed to rising fuel prices, with the national average nearing $4 per gallon, according to AAA.
Higher energy costs threaten to offset the political benefits of Republicans’ flagship legislative achievement, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which the party has promoted as a cornerstone of its economic agenda during Trump’s second term.
Public opinion has shifted as well. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 36 per cent of Americans approve of Trump’s performance, the lowest level recorded during his current term. Concerns about his temperament and mental sharpness have also been raised following a series of public outbursts.
Democrats are expected to frame the midterm elections as a judgement on Trump, a scenario Republicans are keen to avoid.
“They are going to try to nationalise the election and say we are a rubber stamp for Trump,” a strategist aligned with Trump’s political network said. “We have to break out of that and show race by race why we are the better choice.”
Despite these concerns, Trump’s political operation maintains that he remains a powerful force within the party. Kiersten Pels, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee, said Trump would continue to be “the most powerful driver” of conservative voter turnout, adding that candidates are actively seeking his endorsement.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales described Trump as the “unequivocal leader of the Republican party” and said he remains committed to preserving the party’s congressional majorities.
The strategic shift was discussed during a meeting on Monday at what was once Trump’s luxury hotel in Washington, now operating as the Waldorf Astoria. Attendees were required to sign non-disclosure agreements, and advisers expressed confidence that Republicans would win a redistricting vote in Virginia the following day.
That optimism proved misplaced. Details of the meeting quickly became public, and Virginia voters subsequently approved a congressional map drawn by Democrats that is expected to benefit them in November.
“If the people framing this approach are confident about Virginia and they get beat in Virginia, you have to question, are they overconfident about the whole package?” said one person familiar with the meeting.
Some Republicans argue that the electoral landscape remains fluid, noting that months remain before voters go to the polls. They point out that a de-escalation in the Iran conflict could ease pressure on fuel prices and inflation, potentially improving the party’s prospects.
“The panic is people looking at things right now, but I think the key is to project where it could be over the summer, and it is still very fluid,” said David McIntosh, president of the Trump-aligned Club for Growth.
Earlier in the election cycle, Republicans had planned to position Trump as the party’s central figure, with advisers suggesting he would effectively be “on the ballot.” Wiles said in December that this approach would depart from traditional midterm strategies, which often keep sitting presidents at arm’s length.
That calculation has now shifted. Party insiders say Republicans will instead focus on local concerns and individual races, rather than emphasising loyalty to Trump.
“The politics have changed,” said another person familiar with the meeting. “In January, nationalising the race around him made some sense.
“Voters do not feel the president is doing enough to make their lives cheaper, but they still believe Republicans want to do that,” the person added.
Some strategists believe Democrats’ own low approval ratings could still offer Republicans an advantage by providing a contrast on policy issues. However, Trump’s weakening support could also give Democrats an opportunity to tie Republican candidates to the president’s perceived shortcomings.
Trump’s foreign policy stance has also drawn scrutiny. After campaigning in 2024 as a critic of prolonged conflicts and portraying himself as a “peace president,” he is now overseeing the largest US military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Critics argue that the administration underestimated Iran’s likely response to the joint U.S.-Israeli attack and the broader economic consequences, including disruptions to global energy supplies and the risk of a wider financial downturn.
Trump’s decision on Tuesday to indefinitely extend what had been a two-week ceasefire was widely seen as a retreat. Iran continues to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz and remains committed to its nuclear programme.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator who has served under both Democratic and Republican administrations, said Iran believes it holds leverage through its control over a key oil shipping route and can endure economic strain longer than the United States.
“The Iranians think Trump’s tolerance for an economic and political price is limited,” said Miller, now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “They are prepared to wait him out.”
