Bangladesh may face sharp power outages in early May as fuel supply constraints, particularly for oil-based plants, threaten to cut generation during peak summer demand.
Electricity demand typically peaks between April and July, driven by heatwaves, increased agricultural irrigation, and higher use of air conditioning in offices and institutions.
Temperatures may reach up to 37°C by early May this year, according to weather forecasting websites.
Bangladesh Independent Power Producers’ Association President David Hasanat told TIMES of Bangladesh that furnace oil-based plants, which meet excess demand beyond base generation, face the most acute risk.
“These plants can supply up to 4,000 megawatts, but current fuel stocks may last only until the third week of April,” he said.
“Prolonged bill payment delays of seven to eight months have prevented private operators from opening letters of credit to import new fuel. Without LC, no new oil will come,” he said.
He added that even if payments are cleared immediately, it would take at least 40 days for fresh supplies to arrive.
As a result, HFO-based generation could drop sharply by late April or early May, potentially leading to load shedding.
He said whenever daily demand exceeds 12,000 megawatts, the additional requirement is largely met through HFO plants.
“If oil is not available, that additional portion will directly translate into load shedding,” he said, warning of severe outages for at least 10 days before new fuel shipments arrive.
Energy sector stakeholders and experts said installed capacity stands at about 29,000 megawatts, but effective output remains far lower due to maintenance schedules, fuel shortages, and operational inefficiencies.
They said effective generation capacity is currently closer to 18,000 megawatts, while the highest recorded output has been slightly above 16,000 megawatts.
They also recommended expanding solar-based power generation to reduce costs as well as dependence on HFO-based plants.
Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood told TIMES that some payments were cleared within the past 10 days but declined to comment on earlier arrears.
He said fuel stocks are currently sufficient and refrained from commenting on recommendations to increase coal-based generation.
Former Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology professor Ijaz Hossain told TIMES that the relationship between installed and actual capacity is complex and cannot be reduced to a single figure.
“Power plants operate under contractual obligations, including capacity payments, and factors such as derated capacity and maintenance are accounted for differently,” he said.
He said disruptions in fuel supply, particularly for oil-based plants, would lead to shortages and estimated load shedding of 1,000 to 2,000 megawatts if generation is curtailed.
He said furnace oil plants remain critical as both backup and peak-load suppliers and cannot be easily replaced by other sources.
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Professor M Tamim told TIMES that ongoing gas and oil supply constraints have already limited generation capacity and stressed that coal-based plants should be operated at full capacity.
He said gas-based generation is officially estimated at 11,000 to 12,000 megawatts, but ageing plants keep effective capacity significantly lower.
He said total generation above 18,000 megawatts is difficult even under optimal conditions.
He warned peak summer demand could reach 17,000 megawatts, while generation may remain around 13,000 to 14,000 megawatts, creating a substantial shortfall.
He said this gap would inevitably result in increased load shedding.
Experts said the current capacity of renewable energy offers limited short-term relief, with solar contributing about 1,000 megawatts during the daytime and requiring significant expansion to reduce reliance on costly oil-based power.
