The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is facing a historic existential threat as US President Donald Trump intensifies his warnings of a unilateral withdrawal, spurred by European allies’ refusal to back an American-led military campaign against Iran.
The discord stems from an ongoing air campaign launched by the US and Israel to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely obstructed by Tehran since 28 February, according an analysis by British media The Economist.
The waterway is a critical artery for global trade, transporting roughly 25 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil.
Rising tensions
In a social-media outburst on March 20th, Trump branded European allies “COWARDS” and has since confirmed he is “absolutely” weighing an exit from the alliance.
This shift is reflected by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who previously championed the transatlantic bond but now describes NATO as a “one-way street.”
Rubio, who once co-sponsored a 2023 law intended to prevent a president from leaving the treaty without Senate approval, now suggests the relationship must be “re-examined” once the current hostilities end.
Diplomatic observers, including former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder, have described the current situation as the alliance’s “worst moment.”
European defiance
Resistance to the American military strategy is widespread across the continent. Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has taken a confrontational stance by closing Spanish bases and airspace to US forces engaged in the Iran conflict.
While France has assisted the United Arab Emirates in intercepting drones, President Emmanuel Macron has drawn ire from Washington for refusing to grant American aircraft overflight rights.
In Britain, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has maintained that the conflict is “not our war,” though he has permitted the use of British bases for the limited purpose of protecting regional neighbours from Iranian reprisals. Trump responded by stating Sir Keir is “no Winston Churchill”. Similarly, Italy has reportedly barred American planes from using a strategic base in Sicily.
Diplomatic schism
The rift was further evidenced on April 2nd, when the United Kingdom hosted a video conference with 40 nations – conspicuously excluding the United States – to discuss applying economic and political pressure on Tehran to reopen the Strait.
British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper accused Iran of attempting to “hold the global economy hostage.”
While the UK believes the US should lead any future escort missions for shipping, France has proposed an alternative mission that would exclude America and instead involve India and potentially China.
Macron has insisted that no such mission is “unrealistic” until a ceasefire and negotiations are established.
Uncertain future
As NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte prepares for a high-stakes visit to Washington on April 8th, fears are mounting ahead of the alliance’s annual summit in Ankara this July.
Some officials warn that even if Trump does not formally exit the treaty, he could effectively disable NATO by recalling American military commanders or withdrawing troops from Europe.
Meanwhile, American officials have indicated they may withhold military aid from Ukraine, citing depleted stocks and a lack of progress in peace discussions with Russia.
Finnish officials have suggested the only remaining path for Europe may be to strengthen its own “European pillar” of defence in preparation for a potential future without American involvement.
