The implementation of a mandatory conscription law has shifted the momentum of Myanmar’s civil war, allowing military junta to regain territory and push resistance forces onto the defensive across several regions.
The military, which ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, currently controls less than half of the country but is making significant tactical gains, reports BBC.
Junta troops are currently advancing to re-establish authority over border areas in Kachin, Chin, and Karen states, having recently secured a vital supply route between Mandalay and Myitkyina.
Forced recruitment, ‘limitless’ manpower
The turning point for the military followed 2024 enforcement of a law requiring men to serve at least two years. Ko Kaung, a People’s Defence Force (PDF) battalion commander, stated that this policy has provided junta with “limitless manpower,” presenting the most significant challenge to the resistance to date.
The human cost of this policy is reflected in the accounts of four young men, aged 19 to 25, who recently escaped junta service to join PDF.
One former chef was abducted from the street for lacking identification; another was detained while returning from karaoke; a third was a forestry official; and a fourth alleged he was framed with planted drugs to force his enlistment.
The recruits described a brutal environment where they were given no rest and forced to perform all manual labour while regular soldiers remained idle. Following four months of basic training, they were deployed to the front lines in Karen state before managing to defect.
Technological superiority, geopolitical influence
The military’s resurgence is further supported by international alliances and technological advancements.
PDF commander Da Wa noted that a security pact with Russia has significantly bolstered the junta’s air power, with aircraft now attacking in pairs rather than individually.
The military also reportedly holds an advantage in both the quality and quantity of drones.
Additionally, China – which maintains substantial investments in Myanmar’s rare earth minerals – has brokered ceasefires with certain rebel groups while simultaneously restricting the flow of weapons and ammunition to resistance fighters.
Resistance under pressure
Resistance commanders admit they are struggling against these mounting odds. While PDF claims “intellectual advantages,” they are severely hampered by a lack of funds, weapons, and ammunition.
In Hpapun, a town already heavily damaged by junta strikes, approximately 2,000 soldiers are currently advancing against rebel positions.
The physical toll of the conflict is evident at a jungle field hospital run by Dr Saung, a former military academy member who now treats resistance fighters on a shoestring budget.
Among his patients is Kyar Soe, a platoon commander who lost a portion of his heel to a landmine. Landmines remain a pervasive threat in Myanmar, causing 745 casualties last year alone.
Despite the setbacks, the desire for a “free and democratic Myanmar” remains a driving force for those in the resistance.
Yine Chit and May Kyut Mon, whose daughter Sue Paye was recently born in the field hospital, expressed hope that their child will grow up in a peaceful country, though they remain unable to visit their families in junta-controlled territory.
