The conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel entered its 13th day on Thursday, with attacks and counterattacks continuing across the region.
In his first public statement since assuming the role of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei signalled continuity in Tehran’s strategic posture, reaffirming the country’s determination to resist external pressure.
The impact of the war is now being felt far beyond the battlefield. Energy markets have been severely disrupted, prompting warnings from the International Energy Agency (IEA) of what could become the largest oil supply disruption in modern history.
The agency on Wednesday agreed to release a record volume of oil from strategic reserves in an attempt to stabilise markets.
Meanwhile, disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical maritime oil routes — have intensified global concerns.
The economic ripple effects of a conflict thousands of kilometres away are already reaching countries such as India and Nepal, where shortages of cooking gas have begun affecting households and businesses.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump suggested the war could end soon. In a brief phone interview with Axios on Wednesday, he said the conflict with Iran would conclude “soon” because there is “practically nothing left to target.”
However, US defence officials provided a more cautious assessment. According to briefings to senators, the first six days of military operations alone cost more than $11.3 billion. Despite the president’s optimistic tone, US and Israeli officials have reportedly received no internal directive outlining when the fighting might stop, according to reports by Al Jazeera, BBC, Reuters and CNN.
New Iranian leader signals continuity
In his first official statement since succeeding his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to uphold the principles and policies of the Islamic Republic.
He emphasised that the resilience and stability of Iran’s political system depend on the unity, awareness and participation of its citizens. The statement echoed the longstanding themes of resistance and national resilience that have characterised Iranian political discourse for decades.
Observers noted that the new leader’s message suggested little change in Iran’s strategic position. He reiterated that Iran has no intention of backing down from confrontation, while maintaining that Tehran does not seek conflict with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
At the same time, he signalled that Iran intends to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed during the conflict and insisted that US military bases in the region must eventually be removed.
Oil prices surge amid supply shock
Energy markets have reacted sharply to the conflict. Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel on Thursday as fears of prolonged disruptions overshadowed the IEA’s record release of strategic crude reserves.
Analysts warn that prices between $90 and $100 per barrel could become the “new normal” if the conflict continues.
According to the IEA, global oil supply could fall by as much as 8 million barrels per day due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28.
Gulf producers have also reduced output by at least 10 million barrels per day, roughly equivalent to 10 percent of global demand.
Iranian govt appears stable
Despite sustained bombardment, US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran’s political leadership remains cohesive and unlikely to collapse in the near future.
Multiple intelligence reports suggest the Iranian government still retains firm control over the population and state institutions, even after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the beginning of the conflict.
Israeli officials have also acknowledged privately that there is no guarantee the military campaign will lead to the collapse of Iran’s clerical leadership.
The war, however, is proving costly. US defence officials told senators in a classified briefing that the first six days of the campaign cost more than $11.3 billion. Some lawmakers believe the total cost could be significantly higher once all operational expenses are included.
War disrupts energy chains
The economic consequences of the war are increasingly visible across Asia and beyond.
In India, shortages of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have forced restaurants to reduce menus, shorten operating hours and, in some cases, temporarily close. Long queues have formed outside gas distribution centres in several cities.
Nepal has begun rationing cooking gas to prevent nationwide shortages. Authorities announced that consumers will receive only half refills for LPG cylinders in an effort to stretch existing stocks.
South Korea has announced temporary caps on domestic fuel prices to protect consumers from the surge in energy costs.
The conflict has also disrupted regional trade. In Turkmenistan, prices of goods imported from neighbouring Iran — including food, construction materials and consumer products — have risen sharply due to reduced cross-border commerce.
Air travel across the Middle East has also been affected. German airline Lufthansa and Dutch carrier KLM have both extended suspensions of flights to Dubai amid security concerns. The broader disruption has contributed to rising global airfares.
