Farmers across the globe are feeling the squeeze from the war in Iran, as soaring gas prices and dwindling fertilizer supplies hit livelihoods, reports AP/UNB.
Tehran’s near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for US and Israeli bombings has intensified the crisis.
The shortage of fertilisers threatens farmers in developing countries, already struggling with rising temperatures and erratic weather, and could push food prices higher for consumers everywhere.
“The poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere rely on fertiliser imports from the Gulf, and the shortage comes just as planting season begins,” said Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food Programme.
“In the worst case, this means lower yields and crop failures next season. In the best case, higher input costs will be included in food prices next year.”
Baldev Singh, a 55-year-old rice farmer in Punjab, India, warned that smallholders — who make up most of the country’s farmers — may not survive if the government cannot subsidise fertilisers during the peak demand in June.
“Right now, we are waiting and hoping,” he added.
Strait of Hormuz blockade halts key nutrient supplies
Iran has severely restricted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage handling roughly a fifth of global oil shipments and nearly a third of worldwide fertiliser trade. Nitrogen and phosphate — essential for crop growth — are under immediate threat.
Nitrogen fertilisers, including urea, are hardest hit due to shipping delays and rising liquefied natural gas prices, a crucial input. The conflict has disrupted around 30 percent of global urea trade, said Chris Lawson of CRU Group, a London-based commodities consultancy.
Some countries are already facing critical shortages, according to Raj Patel, a food systems economist at the University of Texas. Ethiopia, for example, imports over 90 percent of its nitrogen fertiliser from the Gulf via Djibouti, a route strained even before the conflict.
“The planting season is now. The fertiliser isn’t there,” Patel said.
Phosphate, which supports root development, is also under pressure. Saudi Arabia produces about a fifth of the world’s phosphate fertiliser and exports more than 40 percent of global sulphur, a key ingredient and oil byproduct, Lawson added.
Even after the war ends, Gulf producers will need clear security guarantees before resuming shipments, and insurance costs are expected to rise, said Owen Gooch of Argus Consulting Services in London.
In India, the government prioritises urea for domestic use and provides about 70 percent of manufacturers’ natural gas needs. However, some plants are running below capacity, limiting output.
“The food system is fragile and depends on stable fertiliser supply chains to ensure farmers can produce the food the world relies on,” said Hanna Opsahl-Ben Ammar of Yara International, one of the world’s largest fertiliser companies.
Shortages hit at a critical time
Fertilisers are generally applied just before or at planting, meaning delayed deliveries can reduce yields, even if supplies improve later.
The impact is already being felt in the United States and Europe, where the main planting season is underway, and is expected to affect the first planting season in much of Asia in the coming months.
“Our crops out in the field need nitrogen now — the sooner the better — so they can get off to a good start, helping them establish themselves and build up reserves for the harvest later this summer,” said Dirk Peters, an agricultural engineer running a farm near Berlin.
Fertiliser prices remain below the peaks seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but lower grain prices now tighten margins, forcing farmers to either apply less fertiliser or switch to less nutrient-intensive crops, such as soybeans in the U.S., which may reduce yields and raise consumer prices, said Joseph Glauber of the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Other nations are unlikely to fill the gap. China, the largest producer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers, is prioritising domestic supply, with urea shipments unlikely until May. Russian plants, another major source, are already running near full capacity, Lawson said.
Developing nations face heightened vulnerability
Fertiliser shortages are being felt across Africa, where many farmers depend on Middle East and Russian imports.
Early heavy rains in East Africa have left farmers with only a short window to prepare fields and apply fertiliser, said Stephen Muchiri, a Kenyan maize farmer and CEO of the Eastern African Farmers Federation, representing 25 million smallholders.
Even brief delays can reduce maize yields by around four percent per season, Patel noted, citing research from Zambia. Governments can intervene with subsidies, promotion of domestic production, and export controls.
India already subsidises fertiliser to ease farmers’ financial burdens, allocating $12.7 billion for urea subsidies this year alone, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
However, reliance on domestic urea production increases dependence on imported gas, and excessive urea use has damaged soil, said Purva Jain of IEEFA, who supports the use of organic fertilisers.
Reducing reliance on imported fertilisers could protect farmers and consumers from energy price shocks and climate disruptions, said Oliver Oliveros, executive coordinator of the Agroecology Coalition.
“This could be a turning point,” he added.
