The disruption of global fertiliser supplies caused by the conflict in Iran could result in the loss of up to 10 billion meals every week, the head of one of the world’s largest fertiliser producers has warned.
Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara, told the BBC that hostilities in the Gulf have blocked vital shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, placing global food security in jeopardy.
He cautioned that reduced crop yields stemming from a lack of fertiliser could trigger an international bidding war for food, which would disproportionately affect the world’s most vulnerable populations.
According to United Nations data, approximately one-third of the world’s fertilisers-including urea, potash, ammonia, and phosphates-typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the commencement of the war by the United States and Israel against Iran, fertiliser prices have surged by 80 per cent.
Holsether revealed that global production of nitrogen fertiliser has already fallen by half a million tonnes due to the current instability. He noted that failing to apply nitrogen fertiliser can slash yields for certain crops by as much as 50 per cent in a single season.
“We’re up to half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser not being produced in the world right now because of the situation we are in,” Holsether said.
“What does that mean for food production? I would get to up to 10 billion meals that will not be produced every week as a result of the lack of fertilisers,” Holsether said while explaining the scale of the impact.
The Yara chief executive emphasised the geographical reach of the crisis. “The fertiliser market is very global so these parts are moving across the planet, but the main destinations would be Asia, South East Asia, Africa, Latin America where you would see the most immediate impact from this,” he stated.
Regions already struggling with under-fertilisation, such as parts of sub-Saharan Africa, could face even more significant drops in output.
In Asia, where the planting season is currently beginning, the full impact on food prices may not be felt until the end of the year when harvests are expected to be significantly smaller.
Professor Paul Teng, a senior fellow in food security based in Singapore, stated that while some nations may have sufficient stocks for the immediate term, a prolonged crisis would severely affect essential crops such as rice in the coming months.
The crisis is further compounded by rising operational costs for farmers, including higher prices for diesel and other inputs, which have outpaced the increase in crop prices.
“They’re faced with higher energy costs, diesel for a tractor is increasing, other inputs for the farmers are increasing, fertiliser cost is increasing, but yet the crop prices haven’t increased to the same extent yet,” Holsether said.
While the United Kingdom is considered unlikely to face actual food shortages, the rising costs for producers are expected to be passed on to consumers.
The Food and Drink Federation has forecast that UK food inflation could reach 10 per cent by December, while the Bank of England suggested a rise to 4.6 per cent by September, with the potential for further increases later in the year.
The humanitarian implications are stark, with the UN World Food Programme estimating that the combined fallout from the Middle East conflict could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger in 2026.
In the Asia-Pacific region, food insecurity is projected to rise by 24 per cent, marking the sharpest relative increase globally.
Holsether urged European nations to consider the ethical consequences of a price war. “If there’s a bidding war on food and one that Europe is robust enough to handle, what we need to keep in mind in Europe is, OK, in that situation, who are we buying the food away from?” he asked.
He concluded that “That is a situation where the most vulnerable people pay the highest price for this in developing nations where they cannot afford to follow that,” noting the implications for food affordability and scarcity.
