A private CIA assessment submitted to the White House suggests Iran could withstand the American naval blockade for three to four months before experiencing severe economic distress.
These findings appear to challenge President Donald Trump’s public confidence regarding a swift conclusion to the conflict, reports Washington Post.
According to the US intelligence community, Tehran maintains significant ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense bombardment by US and Israeli forces. The report indicates that Iran has retained approximately 75 percent of its mobile launchers and 70 percent of its pre-war missile inventory.
Contradictory military assessments
The intelligence report directly contradicts remarks made by President Trump in the Oval Office on Wednesday, where he claimed Iran’s missile strength had been “mostly decimated” and reduced to only 18 or 19 percent.
In contrast, officials familiar with the intelligence noted that the Iranian regime has successfully reopened almost all its underground storage bunkers and is actively repairing or even completing the assembly of new missiles.
Before the outbreak of hostilities on 28 February, Iran possessed roughly 2,500 ballistic missiles and thousands of drones. While the administration, including Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, has framed the war as an overwhelming victory, a visual investigation by The Post identified at least 228 buildings or pieces of equipment damaged at US military installations across the Middle East due to Iranian retaliatory strikes.
Economic warfare and ‘Economic Fury’
The US-led blockade followed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of peace negotiations in Pakistan. Under a sanctions programme titled “Economic Fury,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly stated that Iran is losing $500 million daily.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent further noted that Iranian oil terminals are nearing capacity, which could lead to permanent structural damage.
Despite the loss of its supreme leader and several high-ranking officials to missile strikes, Iran has demonstrated unexpected resilience.
To mitigate the blockade’s impact, Tehran is reportedly storing oil on otherwise empty tankers and reducing flows in oil fields to preserve well functionality.
Some US officials expressed concern that CIA may be underestimating Tehran’s endurance, noting that the leadership has become more radical and confident while potentially exploring oil smuggling routes via rail through Central Asia.
Stalled maritime missions and diplomacy
On Sunday, President Trump launched “Project Freedom,” a mission intended to provide US Navy escorts for commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the president paused the operation on Tuesday, citing “Great Progress” in diplomatic efforts.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed on Wednesday that it is reviewing a US proposal to end the war, with responses being mediated by Pakistan.
Despite the ongoing talks, some analysts warn of a potential strategic failure. Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, suggested that Tehran may emerge from the conflict stronger than before retaining its missile capabilities and uranium enrichment while potentially gaining sanctions relief. “The problem is they don’t think they need to capitulate,” Citrinowicz observed.
