France against Germany in the last 16. Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric meeting for possibly the final time on the international stage. Brazil facing the Japan side who beat them less than a year ago. Argentina against Belgium. Mexico against England on home soil.
None of these ties are guaranteed. Some require little more than group leaders holding their nerve. Others depend on third-place permutations, favourable draws and several rounds of the heavyweights avoiding upsets. But based on The Athletic’s forecasting model, here is a look at the most compelling knockout matches that could be just around the corner.
A word on the expanded bracket
Between 1998 and 2022, 32 teams entered the World Cup. There are now 32 teams left after the group stage alone. The expansion to 48 nations introduced a round of 32 before the last 16, which means an extra layer of ties, extra jeopardy and extra possibilities.
Round of 32
France vs Sweden
For this to happen, France must win Group I while Sweden would need to finish third in Group F, qualify as one of the eight best third-placed teams, and then be allocated to France’s section of the bracket. The model gives France an 83 per cent chance of winning their group and Sweden a 67 per cent chance of advancing as a third-placed side.
It would also produce a meeting between Arsenal team-mates William Saliba and Viktor Gyokeres. Sweden’s partnership of Gyokeres and Liverpool striker Alexander Isak carries genuine pace and power, the kind that gives elite centre-backs problems. But Sweden have been defensively vulnerable: five goals scored against Tunisia, five conceded against the Netherlands. Against Kylian Mbappe and France’s runners in behind, that instability could be decisive.
Netherlands vs Morocco
The Group F winners face the Group C runners-up, which sets up a possible collision between the Netherlands and Morocco. The model gives the Netherlands a 63 per cent chance of topping their group and Morocco a 69 per cent chance of finishing second in theirs.
Three members of Morocco’s squad, Noussair Mazraoui, Sofyan Amrabat and Anass Salah-Eddine, were born in the Netherlands and developed through the Dutch football system. That adds an unusual dimension to a tie that already promises tactical intrigue. The Netherlands will want their full-backs, particularly Denzel Dumfries, advancing high to become auxiliary attackers. Morocco’s threat comes precisely from exploiting those spaces, with Achraf Hakimi, Brahim Diaz and Ismael Saibari capable of turning a defensive act into a counterattack within seconds. Their draw with Brazil was a reminder that Morocco are not simply a side to be managed.
Portugal vs Croatia
Both teams would need to finish second in their respective groups, Portugal in Group K and Croatia in Group L, for Ronaldo and Modric to face each other once more after their Nations League meeting in September 2024. The model gives Portugal a 35 per cent chance of finishing second and Croatia 57 per cent.
Ronaldo is 41 and Modric 40. They shared six seasons at Real Madrid and won four Champions Leagues together, but this could be their last encounter on the international stage. Portugal won their most recent meeting 2-1, with Ronaldo scoring the 900th goal of his career.
Portugal would carry the deeper squad, but their opening draw with DR Congo revealed a persistent problem: vast possession that fails to produce chances. They held 75 per cent of the ball, completed 783 passes and managed just one shot on target. Croatia would welcome that kind of game, slowing the tempo and letting Modric dictate. Neither captain could count on another chance.
Brazil vs Japan
Brazil must win Group C and Japan finish second in Group F for this to happen, but Japan would need no reminder of how an upset might unfold. In a Kirin Challenge Cup friendly in Tokyo in October 2025, they came back from 2-0 down to beat Brazil 3-2, their first senior victory over the Selecao in 14 attempts.
Ayase Ueda scored the winner that night and followed it with two goals in Japan’s 4-0 win over Tunisia at this tournament. Japan also came from behind twice to draw 2-2 with the Netherlands. Brazil remain favourites, but Japan would arrive with recent, concrete proof that they can beat them.
Last 16
By this stage, the third-place permutations have gone and the bracket is clear. The ties grow in weight.
Germany vs France
Germany have already secured top spot in Group E. France must finish above Norway in Group I, and both sides would need to survive their round of 32 games.
The teams have met four times at the World Cup. France beat West Germany 6-3 in the third-place playoff in 1958, with Just Fontaine scoring four. West Germany recovered from 3-1 down in extra time to beat France on penalties in the 1982 semi-final in Seville, one of the most dramatic nights in the competition’s history. West Germany won again at the same stage in Mexico four years later. Most recently, Germany eliminated France in the 2014 quarter-finals on the way to the title.
Germany will want to press high, commit bodies around Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz and control the ball in the final third. The risk is that France are most dangerous precisely when opponents push forward and leave space behind them for Mbappe.
Brazil vs Norway
Brazil must win Group C and Norway must finish second in Group I before both advance. Brazil would be favourites, but history offers a genuine warning. Norway have never beaten Brazil in four senior meetings: two wins, two draws.
Their most celebrated moment came at the 1998 World Cup, when a late Kjetil Rekdal penalty eliminated Brazil in the group stage. The current Norway side possesses an even more obvious match-winner. Erling Haaland has scored four goals in his first two World Cup games, with Martin Odegaard supplying from midfield. Brazil would expect to dominate possession. Norway might need only a single transition.
Mexico vs England
Mexico secured first place in Group A before the final round of games. England must win Group L, where The Athletic’s model gives them an 89 per cent chance of finishing top, after which both sides would need to progress from the last 32.
The setting would lend this fixture much of its power. Mexico have not reached the World Cup quarter-finals since they hosted the tournament in 1986. A home tie against England, in front of a full crowd in Mexico City after two group victories, would feel like a genuine opportunity to end four decades of hurt.
England have the stronger squad, as their four-goal opening win over Croatia demonstrated. But that match became chaotic and Mexico, with the crowd behind them, would seek to turn this into a contest of emotion and endurance rather than a controlled exercise.
Argentina vs Belgium
Argentina won Group J with a match to spare. Belgium must finish second in Group G and then both teams would need to progress from the round of 32 to recreate a fixture with considerable World Cup pedigree.
Belgium beat the then-defending champions in the opening game of the 1982 tournament. In 1986, Diego Maradona scored twice to eliminate them in the semi-finals. In 2014, Gonzalo Higuain decided the quarter-final in Argentina’s favour.
The current balance points towards the holders. Argentina have built a compact, cohesive collective around Lionel Messi, who has begun this tournament with five goals. Belgium would need Kevin De Bruyne to escape Argentina’s midfield pressure and create before the defensive structure could settle.
