The ongoing conflicts in the bordering Rakhine State and other parts of neighbouring Myanmar poses a serious security threat for Bangladesh.
Fierce battles among insurgent groups such as the Arakan Army (AA), Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) continue to rise, while the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s armed forces) attempts to regain control of land lost to different factions.
The internal conflict is increasingly affecting Bangladesh’s border regions, particularly through AA’s cross-border incursions and abductions.
Amid this situation, Bangladesh is likely to look for options other than the usual diplomatic manoeuvring.
Lt Gen SM Kamrul Hassan, the Principal Staff Officer (PSO) of the Armed Forces Division, has termed the situation the greatest security challenge since independence.
Speaking at a seminar on “Regional Geopolitical Landscape: Impacts on the Security Dynamics of Bangladesh and Ways Forward”, he warned that the Arakan Army’s cross-border activities and abductions now pose a direct threat to Bangladesh’s sovereignty.
He emphasised the need to strengthen national defence capabilities, ensure clarity in security strategy, and consider strategic alignments that best serve the country’s long-term interests.
While improving defence capacity is one response, experts argue that a lasting solution demands a political consensus aligned with any strategic or military upgrades.
A former diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “Bangladesh has never shown an aggressive posture toward any neighbour — that is our policy. But if tensions reach an unbearable level, the government may reconsider that stance.”
Asked about deterrence, he replied: “Deterrence does not develop overnight. It is psychological: you sometimes need a couple of measured retaliatory actions so an adversary believes you can — and will — fight back.”
On deployment, he said: “That requires careful planning. Depending on the chosen deterrence strategy, deployments may be offensive or defensive. It all depends on the objective and on available capacity.”
Former Bangladesh Ambassador to Thailand Md Abdul Hye said, “We can increase our capacity, but it will not help unless it is backed by a bipartisan political solution, which will be accepted by all.”
He explained that if the consensus is to resolve the problem diplomatically, then stronger engagement is required. If it calls for force, then defence capacity must be increased accordingly.
Former Ambassador Humayun Kabir added, “Bangladesh needs to improve its capacity… Capacity is the source of power … it is needed for analysing, formulating and implementing strategy.”
Border management lessons
Myanmar shares 6,523 km of land border with five countries: China (2,129 km), Thailand (2,416 km), India (1,468 km), Laos (238 km), and Bangladesh (270 km). Despite sharing longer borders with Myanmar, China, India, and Thailand have established systems that prevent border conflicts from escalating.
Ambassador Hye said Bangladesh should study these models closely: “Those three countries have long experience of managing border tensions with Myanmar. They remain engaged with Tatmadaw at the centre while keeping tactical contacts with rebel ethnic armies and groups on the borders. Control of trade routes with China and Thailand brings more economic benefits to both Junta and rebel armies.”
He added that the situation is evolving rapidly, making it essential for Bangladesh to engage all relevant stakeholders to address the protracted Rohingya issue and related border tensions.
